Some interesting reports about the war in Ukraine today which paint an overall picture of Russia maybe being a little bit in trouble and worried about near-future outcomes. Let’s start with this Ukrainian attack on a Russian freight train.

An explosive device derailed a Russian freight train in a region bordering Ukraine for a second straight day Tuesday ahead of an expected counteroffensive by Kyiv…

The last four days have seen two trains derailed by explosions, a suspected drone hitting an oil depot in Crimea that caused a huge blaze and power lines blown up near Saint Petersburg.

This video shows one of the derailments.

Explosion on the railway in the Bryansk region of Russia.
The incident occurred at 10:17 Moscow time, a locomotive and seven wagons of a freight train derailed. “As a result of the incident, the locomotive caught fire. According to preliminary information, there are no… pic.twitter.com/KowZhMXCOX

— Victor vicktop55 (@vicktop55) May 1, 2023

This looks like the same derailment from another angle.

An explosion derailed a freight train in Russia’s Bryansk region on Monday, according to the local governor and the Russian railways company, the latest in a spate of apparent attacks to hit the area bordering Ukraine. https://t.co/9oElVJIJug pic.twitter.com/tIsHKTU5Bv

— The New York Times (@nytimes) May 1, 2023

And here’s video of the strike on the oil depot on Crimea.

FLASH: A drone strike at an oil depot in Crimea caused a MASSIVE fire to erupt. Take a look at the giant pillar of smoke:pic.twitter.com/UomyXmsBbX

— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) April 30, 2023

Another angle:

🔥Russia-occupied Sevastopol in Crimea. Oil depot hit by a drone. pic.twitter.com/59cxygUz4R

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) April 29, 2023

Some significant strikes inside Russian territory. Now, add to that this report about Russia’s defense minister:

Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, called on Tuesday for quickly doubling Russian production of guided missiles and speeding up the replenishment of other weapons and military equipment needed for the war in Ukraine.

The defense minister’s remarks are the latest in a series of statements by senior officials, starting with President Vladimir V. Putin, that suggest the Russian arms industry is struggling to keep pace with the demands of the war…

Western military analysts and Ukrainian officials have been suggesting for months that production bottlenecks were among the problems plaguing the Russian military, caused partially by the need to substitute parts sanctioned by the West.

It’s not definitive but it certainly sounds as if they’re concerned about keeping up the pace of military supplies. And that brings us to the most interesting report of all. This one comes from a Russian site called Meduza by way of the Daily Beast. The report claims that the Kremlin has sent out guidance to its propagandists on state television warning them not to downplay or underestimate the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The Kremlin is asking propagandists “not to underestimate the announced counter-offensive of Ukraine with NATO support” and not to say that “Kyiv is allegedly not ready for a “counter-offensive”.” The pro-government media, on the contrary, should focus on the fact that Western countries supply Kyiv with weapons and support Ukraine in every possible way.

Two Meduza sources close to the presidential administration explained that there is a simple explanation for this coverage of the impending counteroffensive:

If the offensive is unsuccessful, it will be possible to say: the army [of Russia] skillfully repelled an attack that was superior in power. The price of this victory will rise greatly.

If Ukraine, with the help of weapons from the United States and Europe, achieves some success and occupies territories, their loss will also be understandable: the entire West has concentrated huge efforts on the front, but its successes – compared to these efforts – are very modest. That is, the Russian army, in general, also coped.

Again, this seems like the kind of advice you give when you’re expecting to take a hit, not expecting to deliver one. There’s not a lot of confidence in that advice. The same document also reportedly advises propagandists not to talk about the amount Russia is spending on its newly annexed territory.

“It’s clear there will be problems with the economy, and it’s clear why. Spending on the ‘special military operation’ isn’t going anywhere,” one source close to the presidential administration said, noting that funds will go towards the “new regions” rather than the old ones and people will inevitably feel neglected. “It is better not to show in specific amounts how much was taken [for the new regions].”

The Kremlin’s new guidelines are a stunning reversal from just a year ago, when propagandists were still pushing the idea that Russia would soon be reborn as a mighty superpower taking control of huge swathes of Ukraine.

Russia is even downplaying its annual Victory Day celebration on May 9th which is usually a big military parade held in cities around the country. This year propagandists were told not to hype it too much. It’s possible that’s because Russia doesn’t have the same amount of spare military equipment around to put in a parade this year.

Add it all up and it sounds like Russia is doing its best to lower expectations, probably because it doesn’t see a lot of positive news out of Ukraine in the near future. Hopefully the Ukrainian counteroffensive will prove the Kremlin right.