It’s looking like the Wagner’s group’s waves of cannon fodder are paying off in Bahkmut. After months spent fighting for this nearly empty ruin of a town, the Institute for the Study of War says Russia is indeed making progress.

Russian forces continued to make territorial gains in and around Bakhmut on April 9 and 10 but likely continue to suffer significant casualties. Geolocated footage posted on April 9 and 10 shows that Russian forces made marginal advances northwest of Khromove (2km west of Bakhmut), in southwest Bakhmut, and north of Sacco i Vanzetti (15km north of Bakhmut. Ukrainian Spokesperson for the Eastern Group of Forces Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on April 9 that Russian Airborne (VDV) forces began to appear in Bakhmut likely to reinforce conventional, rather than Wagner Group, forces. Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on April 10 that Ukrainian forces have exhausted Wagner forces so much that the Russian military command has had to send SPETSNAZ and VDV elements to Bakhmut. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces made advances in northwestern Bakhmut and in central Bakhmut near the railway on April 9 and 10. A milblogger claimed on April 10 that Russian forces made advances in central and southern Bakhmut.

There are also reports of war crimes committed by Wagner mercenaries:

Wagner forces are reportedly continuing to commit war crimes by beheading Ukrainian servicemen in Bakhmut. Russian social media users published footage purportedly showing the remains of a head belonging to a Ukrainian serviceman on a spike at an unspecified area in Bakhmut. Social media users recalled similar instances of skulls mounted on spikes in Popasna, Luhansk Oblast, where Wagner troops operated over spring–summer of 2022. The Geneva Convention prohibits the mutilation and despoilment of dead bodies in war.

There are reportedly a few thousand civilians remaining in the town (originally it had a population of 77,000) but it’s hard to imagine anyone could survive there when you look at it.

Remember this next time when russia will say that it is going to “save” someone. This is how russian salvation looks like #Bakhmut #RussiaIsATerroristState #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/i0RprSBZsT

— Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) April 9, 2023

The LA Times has a reporter in Bakhmut who posted this video just a short while ago comparing Bakhmut to the ninth circle of hell.

If war is hell, there’s a creditable case Bakhmut is its ninth circle.

Correspondent @nabihbulos reports from the battleground: https://t.co/aB8s85ZVrG pic.twitter.com/fFhJO7tEZX

— Los Angeles Times (@latimes) April 11, 2023

Wagner fighters have also posted a video showing them taking territory in Bakhmut.

Russian PMC Wagner at the Bakhmut Metalurg stadium. pic.twitter.com/FhLs43aQWs

— Aldin 🇧🇦 (@aldin_aba) April 11, 2023

This report below suggests that there’s a lot going on behind the scenes on the Russian side. While they may eventually take Bakhmut, they are already moving some troops south to Vuhledar where they previously suffered an embarrassing defeat.

Meanwhile, Professor Michael Clarke, former director of the Royal United Defence Studies Institute (RUSI), tells Sky News that the Russians have moved their troops in large numbers (#Bakhmut) pic.twitter.com/lyToTJlGWT

— Sander (@SanderRegter) April 11, 2023

Meanwhile, behind what’s happening on the ground there are continued politics. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner group, is allegedly trying to transform his gains in Ukraine into power by taking control of a political party in Russia.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, who leads the notorious mercenary force, is trying to gain control of a Russian political party, the independent news website Meduza reported on Monday.

Citing “sources close to the Kremlin”, it said Prigozhin was trying to seize control of the ‘A Just Russia’ party, whose leader Sergei Mironovrecently called Wagner a “heroic military formation”…

The party, which says it offers “New Socialism of the 21st Century”, is pro-Kremlin and acts as pseudo opposition to Putin.

Prigozhin is considered a close friend of Putin so it’s not clear what he’s trying to accomplish by taking over a party which won’t offer any real opposition. There must be something to gain because he continues to be hated by the regular Russian military.

Anyway, as that report above suggested, it really did look like Bakhmut might fall about a month ago. But Ukraine refused to let it happen, reasoning that they were killing about 5 Russian soldiers/Wagner fighters for every one they lost. Now the Wagner group is significantly depleted but it is starting to look like the territory itself may be lost. Of course people have said that before but this time it looks like it might actually be true.