Back in October the Kremlin appointed Gen. Sergey Surovikin as the overall commander of the special military operation in Ukraine. Surovikin, who’d been given the nickname General Armageddon for his tough approach was expected to turn Russia’s fortunes around quickly.

Just two days later, more than 80 long-range missiles rained down across Ukraine — including one just feet from a kids’ playground — in the most dramatic escalation since the invasion nearly eight months ago.

“I am not surprised to see what happened … Surovikin is absolutely ruthless, with little regard for human life,” a former defense ministry official who has worked with Surovikin told the Guardian.

“I am afraid his hands will be completely covered in Ukrainian blood.”

But in his first week, Gen. Surovikin was forced to announce that things weren’t going so well in Kherson. Even then he seemed to be trying to delay the inevitable.

“The enemy continually attempts to attack the positions of Russian troops,” Sergei Surovikin said in his first televised interview since being appointed earlier this month, adding that the situation was particularly difficult around the occupied southern city of Kherson…

“Further actions and plans regarding the city of Kherson will depend on the developing military-tactical situation, which is not easy. We will act consciously, in a timely manner, without ruling out difficult decisions,” he added.

So it came as no big surprise when two weeks later Gen. Surovikin himself explained that “after a comprehensive assessment of the current situation” Russia was losing and needed to retreat.

Moment Surovikin and Shoygu admit defeat in the Kherson direction and announce the withdrawal of troops. pic.twitter.com/10UZgVuIcm

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 9, 2022

Yesterday we learned that General Armageddon has been demoted.

Russia has again replaced its military commander in Ukraine, putting army chief Valery Gerasimov in charge of its forces in the conflict, the defense ministry said Wednesday.

“Army General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, has been appointed Commander of the Joint Grouping of Troops (Forces),” the ministry said.

Sergei Surovikin, the commander of Russia’s forces in Ukraine for the past three months, will become Gerasimov’s deputy, the ministry said. Surovikin, lionized by Russia’s pro-Kremlin press as “General Armageddon,” had previously been the commander of Russia’s Air Force.

The last straw for Gen. Surovikin may have been the embarrassing New Year’s Eve rocket strike that killed dozens of newly mobilized soldiers, apparently as they were watching a speech by Putin on television.

But while you can’t credit Gen. Surovikin for any victories or new territory, you can credit him with living up to his ruthless reputation. The campaign to destroy Ukraine’s energy grid at the onset of winter started under his watch. The Pentagon has said these attacks, which are clearly intended to impact civilians, are a war crime.

The reasons for the reshuffling may not be as simple as Gen Surovikin not getting the job done. This BBC report points to politics and internal divisions within the top ranks.

Wednesday’s announcement comes as fighting continues in Soledar in eastern Ukraine…

Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group has taken full credit for “storming” it.

On Tuesday night, the group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said his forces were in full control of Soledar. However, on Wednesday the Russian defence ministry released a statement appearing to contradict his claim – or that only Wagner group troops were involved.

This led to Mr Prigozhin repeating the claim on Wednesday evening. In a short statement on Telegram, he boasted that his mercenaries had killed around 500 pro-Ukraine troops. “The whole city is littered with the corpses of Ukrainian soldiers,” he wrote.

The apparent differences hint at divisions in Russia’s military leadership, particularly between the Wagner Group and the defence ministry.

Military analyst Mike Lee argued on Twitter that the replacement of Gen. Surovikin may have less to do with his failures and more to do with his increased proximity to Putin which represented a threat to the Ministry of Defense.

This reasserts the MoD's position overseeing the war. Prigozhin has praised Surovikin while criticizing Lapin and the senior leadership of the MoD. This may also partially be a response to Wagner's increasingly influential and public role in the war.

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) January 11, 2023

Another analyst suggests this might be the best thing that ever happened to Surovikin because he no longer shoulders the blame if the war effort continues to go badly.

What did Surovikin do wrong? Nothing, really (in context – this is not about his morality…). Yes, there were all kinds of reversals, including the recent Makiivka strike, but there is a limit to what one new commander can do in 3 months 3/

— Mark Galeotti (@MarkGaleotti) January 11, 2023

Putin has high expectations but there are probably more disappointments to come.

For Gerasimov (who were were being assured was out of favour and about to be sacked… or who was Putin's right hand man…) it is a kind of demotion, or at least the most poisoned of chalices. It's now on him, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations again 5/

— Mark Galeotti (@MarkGaleotti) January 11, 2023

Imagine trying to win this war with soldiers who a) don’t want to be there and b) have no training and equipment. Imagine having to explain to Putin why it’s not going well a few months from now.

There may well be some advances, but nothing decisive (and the Ukrainians themselves will be looking to a spring offensive). In many ways, I don't think Moscow's strategy hinges anyway on battlefield victory – it's more about politics 7/

— Mark Galeotti (@MarkGaleotti) January 11, 2023

So what does this actually mean? (a) Confirmation, if we needed it, that there will be serious offensives coming, and that even Putin recognises that poor coordination has been an issue (though can even Gerasimov truly command Wagner + Kadyrovtsy?) 9/

— Mark Galeotti (@MarkGaleotti) January 11, 2023

And this brings us back to the idea that more mobilization is probably on the horizon.

Not the nuclear option, but more mobilisation or, arguably more militarily logical but politically dangerous, also deploying conscripts. They are better trained and equipped than most mobiks! 11/

— Mark Galeotti (@MarkGaleotti) January 11, 2023

Whatever the precise reason for his replacement now it seems fair to say that there are too many Russian strongmen and too few battlefield successes on which to hand their egos. Until that changes (if it even can) this is going to continue to look like a sad game of musical chairs.