We started the day with the GOP on the cusp of controlling the House and we’re ending the day with the GOP on the cusp of controlling the House. Still there has been some movement. The big news is that moments ago the Associated Press called two races in Arizona for the GOP. David Schweikert wins in AZ-1:

BREAKING: Republican David Schweikert wins reelection to U.S. House in Arizona's 1st Congressional District. #APracecall at 7:26 p.m. MST. https://t.co/2nlgpji7ac

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 15, 2022

And in AZ-6, Juan Ciscomani wins.

BREAKING: Republican Juan Ciscomani wins election to U.S. House in Arizona's 6th Congressional District. #APracecall at 7:27 p.m. MST. https://t.co/2nlgpjiEZK

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 15, 2022

That brings the GOP tally to 214 seats. The AP also called Oregon’s 6th district for Democrat Andrea Salinas which brings the Dems tally to 205 seats. That leaves 16 races uncalled.

The GOP only needs four more seats to clinch the win and they currently lead in seven. Until about an hour ago (as I write this) they had been leading in 8 races but in CA-8 the latest batch of votes put Democrat Adam Gray in the lead over Republican John Duarte. Gray is only leading by 761 votes and only 78% of the vote is counted so this continues to look like a toss-up. Here are the remaining seven races where the GOP leads:

At the moment, both NY-22 (Brandon Williams) and CO-3 (Lauren Boebert) have the GOP candidate in the lead with more than 95% of the vote counted. Boebert’s lead of 1,122 votes makes this the 2nd closest race in the country.

And for some reason the CA-22 race hasn’t been updated at all since Friday. At present, Republican incumbent David Valadao is leading by 2,878 votes but only 53% of the vote is in. I expected to see some change in that race today but so far nothing.

The other shift that caught my attention today came on the blue side of the uncalled races. In CA-47 progressive rock star Katie Porter has been leading Republican Scott Baugh by 3%, but an update this afternoon cut her lead substantially. It’s now down to 2,891 votes or 1.3 percent. Only 80% of the vote is in so there’s still a chance Baugh could claim the lead. As I mentioned last week, this is one of the races I was most hoping to see the GOP flip but all weekend it looked like all of the updates were only increasing Porter’s lead.

And that’s about it for now. If there are more updates in the next hour or so I’ll post them below.

Update: Wow, step away for a bit and a lot happens. Three more races have been called for the GOP. Ken Calvert wins CA-41:

Decision Desk HQ projects Rep. Ken Calvert (R) wins re-election to the U.S. House in California’s 41st Congressional District.#DecisionMade: 9:01pm EST

Follow more results here: https://t.co/erllKAE1oN pic.twitter.com/DiGzo80A2N

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 15, 2022

Decision Desk had called NY-22 earlier:

Decision Desk HQ projects Brandon Williams (R) wins election to the U.S. House in New York’s 22nd Congressional District.#DecisionMade: 1:49pm EST

Follow more results here: https://t.co/erllKADtzf pic.twitter.com/NAQfDKt405

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 14, 2022

But it has now been called by everyone else as well including the Associated Press:

BREAKING: Republican Brandon Williams wins election to U.S. House in New York's 22nd Congressional District. #APracecall at 11:00 p.m. EST. https://t.co/2nlgpji7ac

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 15, 2022

Finally, the AP also called the CA-45 race for Michelle Steel.

BREAKING: Republican Michelle Steel wins reelection to U.S. House in California's 45th Congressional District. #APracecall at 8:00 p.m. PST. https://t.co/2nlgpji7ac

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 15, 2022

With those three races it’s now GOP 217 to 205 for Dems. The GOP still leads in four uncalled races and is close in 3 other races.

Update: Chris Bouzy, who called the Senate outcome and spent all weekend claiming the Dems were going to hold the House with 219 has conceded that’s not happening.

Democrats needed AZ-6 and CA-41, and they lost both. Now Democrats need CA-3, CA-22, CA-27, and CO-3 to win.

Redistricting made these races challenging to predict, and the remaining votes didn't trend in the direction I assumed they would. Sorry guys.

— Christopher Bouzy (@cbouzy) November 15, 2022