Thursday I wrote about the expected final tally for each party in the House. At the time the estimate, based on which party was leading in races that hadn’t been called yet, was either 221 or 222 seats for the GOP. Since 218 seats are needed for control, that would give Republicans a very narrow majority.

As of today, the GOP has won 211 seats and the Dems have won 201. That leaves 23 seats left to call. Of those 23, the GOP is currently leading in 10 races and Dems are leading in 13. So if nothing changes the GOP would wind up with 221 seats and control of the House. That’s pretty much unchanged since Thursday except that it looks like 222 seats is now off the table.

But here’s where I’m feeling a little nervous. There are a few seats where the GOP candidate is leading which could wind up being very close. For instance, the closest race in the country (as I write this) is California’s 13th district. Republican John Duarte is leading Democrat Adam Gray by 84 votes. But the really worrisome part is that only 61% of the vote is counted. So this is pretty clearly a seat that could go either way and so far it has been moving slightly in Gray’s direction.

As mail continues to come in for CA-13, Republican John Duarte’s lead over Democrat Adam Gray has fallen to just 84 votes. Joe Biden carried this open seat by 11 points #CA13 pic.twitter.com/fx2v4vixaa

— Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) November 12, 2022

Then there’s California’s 41st district where Republican Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by 1,598 votes. That’s a more significant margin than the one in CA-13 but here again only 59% of the vote has been counted so this could still go either way. And it’s not just me seeing it. Here’s Nate Cohn from the NY Times and Dave Wasserman from Cook Political Report discussing it last night. Wasserman specifically points to the 2 seats I just mentioned.

FWIW, I'd slightly favor Adam Gray (D) in #CA13, and would add #CA41 Rep. Ken Calvert (R) – still in play and a more plausible Dem pickup opportunity than either #CA27 or #CA45. https://t.co/0zZvZ03O5j

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 12, 2022

Finally, the race in Oregon’s 5th district is another close one. Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer is leading Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner by 6,792 votes with 86% of the vote counted. That was enough for the Oregonian to call the race for Chavez-DeRemer.

The Oregonian calls US House Dist. 5 for Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

— Oregonian Politics (@OregonianPol) November 11, 2022

But other major outlets haven’t called it yet and McLeod-Skinner put out a statement yesterday indicating she hasn’t given up.

#orpol #JamieForOregon #CD5 #OR05 pic.twitter.com/JGZiZEarGa

— Jamie McLeod-Skinner for Oregon (@JamieforOregon) November 11, 2022

I think that’s probably going to be a win for the GOP but it’s nerve-wracking to watch.

And you can keep going. In Arizona’s 6th district Republican Juan Ciscomani has a 2,906 lead over Democrat Kirsten Engel with 83% of the vote in. Decision Desk called this race days ago:

Decision Desk HQ projects Juan Ciscomani (R) wins election to the U.S. House in Arizona's 6th Congressional District.

D to R Flip.#DecisionMade: 5:04pm EST

Follow more results here: https://t.co/AOgwtoN5Dd pic.twitter.com/zk5CzqcMY6

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 9, 2022

However, since then Ciscomani’s lead has been narrowing.

With tonight's updates in Tucson, Kirsten Engel (D) just cut Juan Ciscomani's (R) lead in #AZ06 to 2,906 votes (1.0%). Suddenly, not looking like as clear of a GOP advantage.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 12, 2022

Could the Dems lose some of their close races? Of course but if you look at the uncalled ones today, most of the blue leaning seats have larger margins. There is one really close race in Colorado’s 8th district where Democrat Yadira Caraveo leads Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer by 1,691 votes with >95% of the votes counted. However that’s the seat I mentioned a couple of days ago where Kirkmeyer has already conceded the race. It’s worth watching but unlike some of the seats mentioned above, there probably aren’t many votes left to tally in that race.

So the bottom line is that a 221 seat victory for the GOP in the House is dependent on a couple of races that look like toss-ups and a few more that look like they might be safe but which keep getting narrower by the day. And that means a narrower final tally of 220 or 219 is very possible.

Of course the really scary scenario is that Dems could hold the House if they run the table. I’m not saying that’s likely but I honestly thought by Saturday we’d have completely ruled that out as a possibility and we haven’t quite. They would need to win both of the toss-ups and then come from behind in two more close races to do it. Fingers crossed none of that happens.

Many districts seem to be doing some counting today so I’ll probably update this post later if anything interesting happens.

Update: A small change in CA-41. Republican Ken Calvert now leads Democrat Will Rollins by 2,108 votes. That’s a gain of 510 votes compared to earlier today. Good to see this race heading in Calvert’s direction.

Some positive news for Republicans in #CA41, where Rep. Ken Calvert (R) just extended his lead over Will Rollins (D) from 1,598 votes (1.2%) to 2,108 votes (1.5%).

Dem path to majority gets extremely tough without this race in their column.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 13, 2022

However, the news in AZ-6, also mentioned above, isn’t as good. After an update, Republican Juan Ciscomani’s lead over Democrat Kirsten Engel is now just 1,382 votes, down from the 2,906 lead he held earlier today.

Some possible good news in AZ-1 where a Democrat currently leads.

Big implications for #AZ01, where Rep. David Schweikert (R) could take the lead over Jevin Hodge (D). Even then, it might not be a secure lead. https://t.co/kcAnPncj0v

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 12, 2022

Update: This was a House thread but this is big news.

Breaking News: Senator Catherine Cortez Masto won re-election in Nevada, ensuring Democratic control over at least one chamber of Congress. https://t.co/OJ79fG6bRt pic.twitter.com/fzqc7m8v8c

— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 13, 2022

Ugh.

Thank you, Nevada! pic.twitter.com/NORNR52wp8

— Catherine Cortez Masto (@CortezMasto) November 13, 2022

So Dems hold the Senate regardless of what happens in Georgia.