I saw these tweets from a Nevada reporter a short while ago as they went up. He predicted that the latest batch of votes would reduce Adam Laxalt’s lead in the race to about 800 votes:

In a new batch of 27.3k ballots counted in Clark County, here are the #nvsen results:
– Cortez Masto received 17.2k votes (63 percent)
– Laxalt received 9k votes (33 percent)

This drops Laxalt’s statewide lead from 9k to about 800 votes.

— Sean Golonka (@s_golonka) November 12, 2022

At the time, the major news sites hadn’t updated their totals and still showed Laxalt with about a 9,000 vote lead. Now they have updated and here’s what it looks like:

That brings Laxalt’s lead down to 798 votes with 93% of the vote reported. A couple days ago I wrote that it was possible that Laxalt could pull this out so long as the splits from the various counties remained similar to what they had been up to that point. Here’s what I said.

…it looks like Laxalt could hold on if the split in each county runs about the same as it has thus far.

Of course the problem with this is that the advantage could change. Masto could start running +10 in the remaining Clark ballots and according to reporter Jon Ralston her advantage should improve in those final mail in ballots.

In fact, Masto has not only been running +10 in these batches of ballots, as you can see from those tweets above, she’s running +30 in some cases. According to the Times, that should be most of the votes left in Clark County which is both the largest county and also the one where Masto has done the best (+7 overall). There are still some votes left in Washoe county which wasn’t quite as blue as well as some remaining votes in some the bright red counties.

So this isn’t over but the nice lead Laxalt was sitting on a couple days ago is gone. Obviously if there are another 30k or 35k votes with a split favoring Masto then Laxalt isn’t likely to pull this out. And that’s really bad news because it probably means the Democrats will have 50 seats again even before the runoff election in Georgia to determine whether Warnock or Walker win that race. I say probably because the Arizona race still hasn’t been called for Mark Kelly but that’s also not looking good at the moment:

There’s still a lot more votes to be counted in that race which is why it hasn’t been called. All I’m saying for certain is that a loss in Nevada, which now seems a lot more likely, would significantly narrow the GOP’s chances of flipping the Senate.

Update: Another batch improves the situation somewhat.

In a new batch of 5.1k ballots counted in rural, Republican-heavy Douglas County, here are the #nvsen results:
– Cortez Masto received 1.9k votes (37 percent)
– Laxalt received 3k votes (59 percent)

This increases Laxalt’s statewide lead from 800 to nearly 2k.

— Sean Golonka (@s_golonka) November 12, 2022

The latest totals.

So Laxalt now leads by 1,951 votes.

Update: And the see-saw drops down again.

With a new batch of 11k ballots counted in Washoe County, here are the #nvsen results:
– Cortez Masto received 5.8k votes (53 percent)
– Laxalt received 4.7 votes (43 percent)

This drops Laxalt’s statewide lead from nearly 2k votes back down to about 800.

— Sean Golonka (@s_golonka) November 12, 2022

The good news is that split wasn’t nearly as bad for Laxalt as the one in Clark County. The other good news is we have to be running out votes to count pretty soon. Here’s the new tally.

Laxalt leads by 821 votes. Clark is > 95% reporting and Washoe is at 92%. There are still two red counties around 80% meaning Laxalt has more votes coming his way.

Update: Some good news tonight in the Nevada governor’s race.

New: @SteveSisolak concedes in #nvgov race pic.twitter.com/hr9s1TMArE

— Riley Snyder (@RileySnyder) November 12, 2022

Update: Laxalt’s statement this morning sums it up.

If they are GOP precincts or slightly DEM leaning then we can still win. If they continue to trend heavy DEM then she will overtake us. Thanks for all the prayers from millions of Nevadans and Americans who hope we can still take back the Senate and start taking our country back.

— Adam Paul Laxalt (@AdamLaxalt) November 12, 2022