Update 9:30 PT: I’m probably going to knock off now because the results in Arizona haven’t changed for more than an hour and Fox News just reported that the state isn’t promising to have 99% of the vote counted until Friday.

Nevada still hasn’t reported any results for any race. As for the GA Senate race, it’s basically tied and there won’t be a call tonight. We’ll be back at it in the morning.

Update 9:00 PT: The Oregon governor’s race is looking very close with 58% of the vote in.

DDHQ Race Update (est. 58% in): OR Governor

Tina Kotek (D): 467,001
(45.50%)
Christine Drazan (R): 457,999
(44.62%)
Betsy Johnson (I): 94,270
(9.18%)

Follow more results here: https://t.co/5VrcT896c7

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 9, 2022

Update 8:46 PT: The rest of the crew are knocking off for the night and the news on the west coast continues to be slow so I’m going to post a few things from around the country, starting with this. Stacey Abrams actually conceded.

Stacey Abrams:

"Let me begin by offering congratulations to Governor Brian Kemp." pic.twitter.com/nzB3CCXxdT

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) November 9, 2022

Update 8:40 PT: The NY Times saying we may not know what’s happening in the Arizona Senate race for some time yet.

The early vote in Arizona has been strong for Democrat Mark Kelly, but we expect a good portion of the in-person and late-counted mail vote to favor Blake Masters. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. pic.twitter.com/pfPH1BAnHw

— NYT Graphics (@nytgraphics) November 9, 2022

Update 8:25 PT: NBC has called the Washington Senate race for Patty Murray.

BREAKING: Democrat Patty Murray wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Washington, NBC News projects. https://t.co/vNLKtZ3I2r pic.twitter.com/h1hqYNQIH0

— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 9, 2022

Update 8:20 PT: Also not a surprise but NBC has called the Oregon Senate race for Ron Wyden.

BREAKING: Democrat Ron Wyden wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Oregon, NBC News projects. https://t.co/fWdJhQ0v2Y pic.twitter.com/Nu7UyKoNhD

— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 9, 2022

Update 8:00 PT: No surprises but Democrats win the Senate seat in California and Gov. Newsom wins reelection.

Update 7:15 PT: We’re finally seeing some numbers in Arizona. Right now with 40% of the vote in Sen. Mark Kelly is leading with just shy of 600,000 votes to 436,000 for Blake Masters.

Similarly, with 40% in Katie Hobbs has 583,000 votes to Kari Lake’s 466,000 votes.

Update 6:25 Pacific Time: Not seeing any numbers yet as polls aren’t closed but people are talking.

Hearing from GOP consultants on the ground in AZ — looking at the data so far, big GOP turnout and they're "cautiously optimistic" Masters is going to pull it out based on their analytics.

— Mark Hemingway (@Heminator) November 8, 2022

Tonight’s the big night and as the resident Californian I’ll be covering the results for several of the western states. So let’s dive right in by looking at some of the closely watched races in each state.

Arizona

There are two big races to watch here. First up is the governor’s race where Republican Kari Lake is facing off against Democrat Katie Hobbs. Lake has been doing quite a job in the state, often taking on the media as much as her milquetoast opponent. That dynamic is at least partly Hobbs fault because she refused to debate Lake, probably fearing Lake would take her apart the same way she has a number of reporters. Despite the hue and cry from progressives around the country and in the media that Lake is the most dangerous politician in America, she is pretty clearly leading the race. FiveThirtyEight gives her a 68% chance of winning and RCP has her up by 3.5 points in its poll average.

The other big race to watch is the contest between Democratic Senator Mark Kelly and Republican challenger Blake Masters. Sen. Kelly seems to have outperformed Katie Hobbs and has been leading his race until very recently. But last week a Libertarian candidate dropped out and endorsed Masters and now the polls show a dead heat. FiveThirtyEight has Kelly still leading by 1.5 points while RCP has Masters up 0.3 points. It’s worth noting the trend of the FiveThirtyEight graph though. Since the start of October, Kelly’s numbers have been flat or even down slightly while Masters is clearly surging.

This is probably going to be a squeaker and if so may not be called until late. Polls close at 7pm local time.

California

There is a Senate race in California but it’s not competitive. Alex Padilla was appointed to replace Kamala Harris when she became Vice President and polls show him leading by more than 20 points.

There are some other races around the state worth watching. The one I’m watching with my fingers crossed is the LA race for mayor between Karen Bass and Rick Caruso. Caruso switched his party affiliation to Democrat earlier this year so, technically, a Democrat will win this race. But Bass is a progressive while Caruso is a former Republican and a real estate developer who has been campaigning on the issues of doing something about crime and homelessness.

Caruso has spent a lot of his own money on TV and radio ads and it appears to have worked. Recent polls show him within a few points of Bass. Caruso has also picked up some surprising endorsements from celebrities and industry leaders in LA who are fed up with the chaos in the streets. As I confessed a few days ago, I find it hard to believe a former Republican could win i LA but I would really love to see this happen as I think it would be good for the city.

The LA Sheriff’s race will also be interesting. Sheriff Alex Villanueva has been a constant foil for progressive DA George Gascon. Villanueva is running for reelection against former Long Beach Police Chief Robert Luna.

I’m also watching a House race which is taking place right in my backyard. Rep. Katie Porter is a progressive rock star just one step down from AOC. Because she’s constantly on MSNBC she raised a tremendous amount of money (more than $20 million) for her House race, CA-47. She has blown through all of it on ads which were mostly focused on abortion over the past few months. Despite the incumbency advantage and the money advantage, polls show the race has been shifting toward GOP challenger Scott Baugh. Last week Cook Political Report officially labeled it a Toss-Up. FiveThirtyEight still has Porter favored (80-20) but this is another race I’d love to see hit by a red wave.

There are several more House races that could be close calls including CA-09, CA-13, CA-22 and CA-26. There’s more on those races here.

Polls in California close at 8pm local time.

Oregon

Portland is still weird but when you get outside the city limits things change a bit. This year there are a couple of races to watch. First, Oregon’s 5th congressional district is a race between Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner and Republican businesswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer. This race is considered a toss-up but FiveThirtyEight gives Chavez-DeRemer a slight edge (58-42).

Oregon’s 6th district is slightly bluer than the 5th but Republican Mike Erickson has a shot of defeating Democrat Andrea Salinas. Cook Political Report moved this race to a toss-up last month. FiveThirtyEight has Salinas with an 72% chance of winning but a few polls have shown him up substantially, so we’ll have to wait and see.

Finally, the Oregon Governor’s race is also a close contest.

Three women, all former legislators, are the top candidates in the race to become the next governor of the state, which hasn’t elected a Republican to the office in 40 years.

Democrat Tina Kotek, formerly the longest serving Oregon House speaker, is being challenged by Christine Drazan, a former leader of the Republican minority in the House. Several opinion polls showed the two statistically tied, which prompted President Joe Biden to come to Portland to boost Kotek’s chances.

FiveThirtyEight gives Democrat Tina Kotek a slight advantage (63-37) over Republican Christine Drazan thought just a few days ago they had it nearly an even split. This is probably going to be close but with a 3rd candidate in the race you never know what might happen.

Polls and drop boxes in Oregon close at 8 pm local time.

Washington

The Senate seat held by Patty Murray is the big prize in Washington. Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley has never led in a single poll of the race but the trend has been toward a smaller and smaller margin for Murray. The RCP average puts Murray up 3 points which is within the margin of error. FiveThirtyEight says Murray has a 92% chance of winning this one so any upset here would be a shock to a lot of people.

Polls in Washington close at 8 pm local time.

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