A new poll released by Data for Progress found the Arizona senate race is now a dead heat between Sen. Mark Kelly and Republican challenger Blake Masters.

Kelly had led Masters, who has the support of former President Trump, by as many as 7 percentage points a month ago.

But Kelly’s lead has shrunk steadily over recent weeks and the former astronaut is now in a tie with Masters, a former executive at Thiel Capital, the venture capital fund of conservative super-donor Peter Thiel.

The survey of 893 likely voters in Arizona conducted from Oct. 11 to Oct. 17 found that 47 percent of respondents would vote for Kelly and 47 percent would vote for Masters, with 4 percent not sure and 3 percent supporting Libertarian Marc Victor.

Just last week Politico published a story saying that it appeared Masters was back in the race. That story quoted a Democratic election attorney who said his party’s path to victory was looking “very narrow.”

National and Arizona Democratic operatives are privately fretting that incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly is endangered, noting a shift by previously undecided voters toward the GOP, aided by a patchwork of new Republican spending to bolster Masters. Recent polling has shown Kelly’s lead shrinking to a few points, much tighter than surveys showed throughout August and September.

“There’s a very narrow path to victory for Democrats in Arizona,” said Roy Herrera, a Democratic election attorney and consultant in the state. “Any poll that shows the Democrats are doing any better than the low or mid-single digits is probably not accurate, or won’t be maintained through the election cycle.”…

A Democrat close to the Kelly campaign said Arizona should never have been considered “safe” for the party this year — even as Masters struggled earlier in the general election.

“We believe this is a race that’s within a point in either direction, and there’s still a good chance that we would lose,” the person said. “And it’s important people understand that.”

Some of that panic may be strategic. Many polls have showed Republicans with an enthusiasm advantage among likely voters, so perhaps by voicing this concern they are trying to shock the base out of apathy. Still, there’s reason to think the panic could be genuine. Politico has another story out today about the sense of panic setting in at the White House.

Despite public displays of confidence, anxiety is growing within the White House and allied Democrats that Republicans will capture at least one chamber of Congress and possibly both…

Among Senate contests, Biden has voiced strong interest in seeing incumbent Republican Ron Johnson defeated in Wisconsin but officials believe that will be a struggle, worrying that Democrat Mandela Barnes may ultimately be too liberal for some of the state’s electorate. There also has been rising anxiety about Nevada, which is widely viewed as the Republicans’ best chance for a pickup as Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is in a toss-up race with Republican Adam Laxalt, an election denier…

Party officials privately note that retaining the House is unlikely and point to the economy, redistricting and historic headwinds as reasons for defeat.

“The atmospherics don’t feel good. We’re seeing GOP enthusiasm and an issue set dominated by the economy and inflation,” said Robert Gibbs, former press secretary to former President Barack Obama. “The wild card will be turnout — do Democrats have voters? But everyone can feel the cost of things even if it’s not the White House’s fault.”

The story goes on to note that in the midst of this growing panic, President Biden is basically grounded. With his numbers sinking back down to the low 40s, the best he can do for Democrats in tight races is stay away. At the moment he has no plans to visit Wisconsin, Michigan or Georgia, though he will visit Pennsylvania.

Finally, just noticed there’s another poll of the AZ Senate race out today. This one shows Mark Kelly with a narrow lead.

The U.S. Senate race, between incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters is much closer. Kelly leads Masters by 2 percentage points. Libertarian, Marc Victor, is at 6%, with 6% still undecided.

The same poll shows Kari Lake leading Katie Hobbs 54-43 with just 2% undecided. So, either there’s going to be a lot of ticket splitting or Lake might help Masters across the line.