You wouldn’t think it was possible for a Republican to stand a chance at winning the NY Governor’s race in 2022, but two new polls out today show Lee Zeldin is cutting into Hochul’s lead and one of them suggests it could even be a close race. First up a new Sienna poll which found Hochul still up by double digits.

Governor Kathy Hochul holds an 11-point advantage over Rep. Lee Zeldin with three weeks to go in the campaign for New York’s highest office, according to a Siena College poll released Tuesday morning. In the past month, pollsters said, the incumbent has seen her lead slashed by about a third.

“Over the last three weeks, Zeldin has narrowed the deficit he must overcome from 17 points to 11 points in trying to become the first Republican in 20 years to win statewide,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a press release. “However, with three weeks to go, Hochul maintains the upper hand.”

If that were the only poll out today you might assume this race is over. But a Quinnipiac poll which also came out today shows a much tighter race.

A Quinnipiac University survey found Hochul with a razor-thin 50 percent to 46 percent lead over Zeldin — putting Zeldin within striking distance of a potentially major upset.

“In the blue state of New York, the race for governor is competitive,” Quinnipiac polling analyst Mary Snow said in a statement. “Democrats have cruised to victory in gubernatorial races since 2006, but Governor Hochul’s narrow edge puts Republican Lee Zeldin well within striking distance of her.”

The difference between the two polls is largely due to Quinnipiac finding Zeldin, who lives on Long Island, with better numbers in New York City. Siena had Hochul leading there by a margin of 70 percent to 23 percent; her lead in the Quinnipiac poll was 59 percent to 37 percent…

The Quinnipiac numbers found that 28 percent of respondents said crime — which has been the centerpiece of Zeldin’s candidacy — is the most urgent issue facing the state. Only 6 percent pointed to abortion, which has been the focus of most of Hochul’s ads.

RealClearPolitics has Hochul leading with an average of 6.2 points. Among those recent polls, Sienna’s results have been the most favorable for Hochul over the past six weeks. FiveThirtyEight puts the current average at 9.6 points for Hochul. Either way, she clearly maintains a lead but there’s a chance this may be more of a horse race than anyone expected two months ago. That tightening may be why the race has turned into a bit of a “brawl” between the candidates.

It’s turning into a bare-knuckle brawl. Republican challenger Zeldin is taking to the streets of New York to slam Hochul, while the well-funded Democratic governor is letting her commercials do the talking, CBS2’s Marcia Kramer reported Monday.

CBS2 got the first look at Hochul’s seven-figure ad buy where she, not an announcer, takes the fight to her opponent.

“The stakes in this election couldn’t be higher. Lee Zeldin says he wants abortion outlawed, he’d repeal New York’s common sense gun laws, and he even voted to overturn the 2020 election. That’s who he is, but it’s not who we are as New Yorkers,” Hochul says in the ad…

Zeldin was angry that the governor has agreed to only one debate on cable TV. But he also appeared frustrated about her so-called “Rose Garden strategy” of avoiding him by simply running the state.

“Kathy Hochul is out trying to crawl across the finish line. She’s trying to survive this election. I’m working as hard as I possibly can to do my part to save the state. Kathy Hochul is barely working to try to save Kathy Hochul,” said Zeldin.

Zeldin’s campaign has probably helped somewhat by the drive by shooting which happened outside his home just over a week ago. The focus of his campaign has been rising crime in New York so the shooting, which had no connection to Zeldin but which left two injured teens on his lawn, made his point for him.

Given the party breakdown in New York, this is still a longshot but longshots do pay off occasionally. Zeldin has certainly run a good campaign to bring himself within striking distance despite the fundraising and incumbency advantages of his opponent. Here’s hoping the election is one that can’t be called the moments the polls close next month.