As Jazz pointed out last week, the San Francisco school board recall vote takes place tomorrow. The recall is taking place at the same time as a State Assembly race. Supporters of the three school board members who are facing the recall have been trying to boost turnout to keep them in place but it appears turnout tomorrow is going to be on the low side.

As of Thursday, just over 105,000 San Francisco voters had returned their mail-in ballots for the citywide special election on Tuesday. That’s just a fraction of the early return rates in recent elections, according to data from the San Francisco Department of Elections...

Similar to the last two elections — 2021 Newsom and 2020 presidential elections — all registered voters received ballots in the mail several weeks prior to election day — a result of the vote-by-mail program established for the 2020 election in response to the pandemic. Voters can return marked ballots either by mail or in-person at polling locations or drop-off stations located throughout the city. The early voting numbers analyzed in this story are an aggregate of vote-by-mail ballots collected at these locations and ballots cast early at in-person voter centers, though the vast majority are returned vote-by-mail ballots.

But despite every San Francisco voter receiving a mail-in ballot, Paul Mitchell, vice president of California-based Political Data Inc., expects turnout for this election to be much lower than the two previous elections. He also thinks a 21% early return rate tracks with rates of past citywide special elections.

The editor of the blog site Beyond Chron says low turnout probably means the school board members are doomed:

My November story on the recall concluded, “If there is a path to victory for the three School Board members, I don’t see it.”

I still don’t. In fact, the chance of any of the three school board members surviving has gotten even worse.

Recall opponents cite a Republican billionaire’s huge donation of funds to the recall as reason to vote no. But when progressive leaders like Matt Gonzalez and John Burton appear in pro-recall mailings, the recall is not a “right wing power grab.”

Labeling the recall a Mayor Breed power grab never had much weight given that she appointed one of the members (Faauuga Moliga) facing recall…

Early voter turnout is high in Districts 4 and 7, where support for the recall is high. If AD 17 voter turnout remains lower than expected, the recall will win in a landslide.

Allison Collins, one of the three board members is also arguing that this is a right-wing plot, but it’s simply not true as one pro-recall voter told the SF Chronicle:

Collins said she believes the recall is an effort by “right wingers, Big Tech and Trump supporters.”

“People need to follow the money,” she said. “Many of the backers of this recall don’t even have kids in public schools, and this is clearly an attack on democracies.”

Pro-recall volunteer Marie-José Durquet, whose children went through district schools, said she is offended by the characterization of the recall effort, which she said teachers, parents and city residents worked days, nights and weekends to make happen.

“They’re ignoring so many people on the ground who have put their heart and soul and money into this,” said Durquet, who has worked as a public school teacher, in San Francisco in the past and in Palo Alto currently, for 30 years. “People from all walks of life desire a school board that behaves responsibly and delivers quality education for children.”

So that’s how it appears to be shaping up. After the vote, election officials should certify the vote in about ten days and then the Board of Supervisors has to accept the results. So if the recall succeeds, the three woke members of the board will probably leave office early next month. Then Mayor London Breed will get to select their replacements.