A CBO report came out last week which found that, stripped of various accounting gimmicks, the Build Back Better bill would cost $3 trillion over a decade. Ed predicted that this could be a major problem for Sen. Joe Manchin. In fact, Republicans had requested the CBO run the numbers without the various sunset provisions in the bill specifically to call it to the attention of Sen. Manchin. As of today it looks like that effort worked. CNN reports that Manchin is meeting later today with President Biden but he’s not talking like someone who is willing to wink at the new CBO report. CNN’s Manu Raju (and co-author Clare Foran) calls it, potentially, a fatal blow.

Sen. Joe Manchin, the most pivotal swing vote in the Senate, indicated on Monday that a significant amount of work remains to be done to earn his support for President Joe Biden’s sweeping social safety net expansion, potentially delivering a fatal blow to Democratic leaders’ hopes of getting the bill passed in the Senate before Christmas…

Manchin’s comments suggest he needs to see wholesale changes to the bill, a process that could take weeks or even potentially months if he holds firm. But Democratic leaders have been racing to get the long-awaited bill done before Christmas even though the final proposal is still being written and vetted by the Senate parliamentarian…

In a key warning sign, Manchin told CNN the bill should not rely on temporary spending that lawmakers will face pressure to extend. “I don’t think that’s a fair evaluation of saying we are going to spend X amount of dollars but then we are going to have to depend on coming back and finding more money … I’m concerned about paying down debt too,” he said.

Raju posted a portion of Manchin’s meeting with reporters on his Twitter feed. At one point Manchin quotes his grandfather saying, “Unmanaged debt will make a coward out of the decisions you make.” That does not sound like someone ready to let a few trillion extra dollars slide on the promise that Democrats will find a way to pay for extending the bill’s provisions later.

Manchin: "And if that's in that 1.7T range, then we should be spending whatever in that range . … Pre-K, childcare, in-home care, then it should be 10 years. It shouldn't just be one year here, three years here, five years there." (Doing that would force major rewrite of bill)

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 13, 2021

Manchin called the CBO score requested by Graham "very sobering." He didn't seem convinced by WH arguments that the CBO report didn't take into account offsets (tax increases) that could be used to pay for extensions. Says he plans to talk to Biden about that report today.

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 13, 2021

Needless to say some progressives aren’t happy. Olbermann’s point doesn’t really add much to the conversation. All he’s saying here is that Manchin is acting like a Republican. Okay, so what if he is? What matters is that the 49 “real Democrats” can’t pass this without him, something we’ve known for quite a while now.

Anybody figure out yet that @Sen_JoeManchin has just stalled on this bill using whatever has stuck to the wall, and IS just stalling on this bill using whatever will next stick to the wall? That he is as much a menace to democracy as the Republicans? https://t.co/yYGLFsXSPA

— Keith Olbermann (@KeithOlbermann) December 13, 2021

Time to break out the angry socialist word salad.

Congress just spent another 700 billion on our defense budget. You have teachers performing degrading competitions for dollar bills for their students and elders without teeth. This man has a yacht. It's a cruel country. https://t.co/tg4K2owG0P

— Wajahat Ali (@WajahatAli) December 13, 2021

Of course it all depends what Manchin is saying after his meeting with President Biden. This Vox reporter thinks it doesn’t look very promising for Democrats.

Manchin on what he'll say to Biden today re: BBB: "We're gonna talk about exactly what happened on Friday, with the CBO score and inflation reports"

Sounds like he's sharpening his knife. https://t.co/vwMeGZPu4D

— Andrew Prokop (@awprokop) December 13, 2021

This AP reporter notes Manchin’s position hasn’t really changed at all.

this is nearly the exact stance Manchin has held since October — making it more and more clear that a Christmas or New Year's deadline as hoped by Schumer/Pelosi will be unlikely. https://t.co/tiRzONK61O

— Farnoush Amiri (@FarnoushAmiri) December 13, 2021

Meanwhile, Jen Psaki is telling reporters that the CBO report Friday is a “fake score.”

The CBO scored a “fake bill” according to Jen Psaki (CBO scored Build Back Better as adding $3T to the debt)

She runs a propaganda operation, not a press office. pic.twitter.com/6BuE8adWTs

— Dan Crenshaw (@DanCrenshawTX) December 13, 2021

Assuming that’s roughly what Biden is going to be telling Manchin this afternoon, I don’t think that dog is going to hunt. Manchin seems to know Democrats a little better than they know themselves. Promises to pay for extending the bill’s various provisions later won’t sound as credible after several more months of high inflation.

My own guess is that Democrats are going to get some version of this bill passed eventually. They’ve invested too much time and political capital in this to let it fail completely. But at the moment the Christmas/New Year’s Eve deadline isn’t looking good.