Back during the "red trickle" of the 2022 midterm elections, one of the primary reasons that the GOP was able to seize the House majority and the Speaker's chair was the surprisingly strong showing by New York Republican House candidates. Republicans flipped four seats held by Democrats in competitive districts, a result attributed by most analysts to the down-ballot coattails of GOP gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin, who came within single digits of unseating New York Governor Kathy Hochul. It turns out that Nancy Pelosi wasn't happy with that result at all, a fact she appeared to confirm during a forum hosted by Politico in the closing hours of the DNC convention this week. When asked "what happened" in New York that year, the former Speaker said she believed the results were "related to the gubernatorial race." It wasn't exactly a fiery tirade, but there are clearly still some bruised feelings remaining. (NY Post)

Rep. Nancy Pelosi publicly threw shade at Gov. Kathy Hochul this week, appearing to blame her for Democrats failing to hold onto their House majority in the 2022 midterms.

The former House speaker, during an interview at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, pointed to Hochul’s near-loss to former GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin for dragging down Dems in several competitive New York congressional races.

“I think it related to the gubernatorial race,” the California congresswoman said at a POLITICO forum Thursday, when asked “what happened” that year.

Hochul didn't appear to be put off by Pelosi's comments. When asked to respond, she simply said, “I just don’t agree with that. That’s fine.” As political intraparty mudfights go, that's just about as polite of a dispute as you're likely to see. But it's also a reminder of how poorly the Democrats performed in New York two years ago under Hochul's leadership and how close she came to losing her own office.

With all of that said, trying to blame Kathy Hochul for letting the House majority slip away is a rather silly idea. It's not as if she was intentionally trying to lose her own race and drive voters away from the down-ballot contests. Keep in mind that Hochul basically inherited the top role in a state that was facing a lot of problems and dissatisfied voters. She was replacing a disgraced governor (Cuomo) who had been driven out of office early amidst a growing number of scandals. Many voters who would probably have defaulted to the Democrats previously were ready for a change, and that shift in the political winds very nearly cost Hochul her own job.

The question facing both Pelosi and Hochul right now is whether the situation on the ground in New York has really changed significantly in the two years since then. Based on the most recent polling available, it really doesn't seem as if it has. The RealClearPolitics polling average still shows Donald Trump losing New York, but he's within single digits of the Democratic nominee. That's roughly the same margin of error that dragged Hochul across the finish line in 2022 so there is no reason to expect that the coattails effect would be all that much different in November. 

Further, the underlying issues causing unrest among New Yorkers haven't gone away either. They are still struggling with inflation and rising prices and interest rates just like everyone else in the country. People are still fleeing New York in large numbers, particularly in the region around the Big Apple. Crime rates and overcrowded migrant shelters are still on everyone's minds. A lot of those people are already no doubt reconsidering their previous voting patterns and pondering trying something different. Much to the chagrin of the Democrats, New York appears to be slowly but surely turning into a battleground state. That's a startling situation in what has traditionally been seen as one of the bluest of the blue states.