We've probably reached the point where we can stop asking whether or not the war in the Middle East might escalate. It's already escalated in at least two additional directions beyond the original, direct conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Yesterday, Hezbollah fired several dozen rockets into Israel from Lebanon. They released an announcement saying that the attack was done "in support of the Palestinian people in Gaza." But in reality, they were retaliating after Israel fired their own rockets into southern Lebanon a few days earlier. Fortunately, nobody in Israel was injured because Hezbollah's rockets mostly fell in open areas, but the incident still heightened tensions in the region because further escalations are anticipated. (NY Post)
Hezbollah fired about 30 rockets from Lebanon toward northern Israel Sunday night, as tensions in the region remained high following the assassination of a top Hamas leader last month.
The series of rockets were launched after an Israeli airstrike in the southern part of Lebanon injured 12 people, according to reports.
The Iran-backed terror organization said it launched the attack in support of the Palestinian people in war-torn Gaza and in retaliation for the Israeli strike in southern Lebanon, according to CNN.
Making matters potentially worse, Israeli intelligence officials said they have confirmed that Iran is still planning a retaliatory strike into Israel in the coming days in response to a senior Hamas leader being killed while he was staying in Iran. ("I specifically requested a room without a bomb, sir.") As we saw the last time they tried that, Iran's offensive strikes were almost entirely ineffective against Israel's air defense systems, but they're bound to get lucky sooner or later.
From the beginning of this edition of the war, we knew that expansions into Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan were likely, and probably anticipated. But if this upward spiral evolves into open, direct warfare between Israel and Iran, that will take matters to the next level and it will raise the question of whether the United States will be dragged into it with an active combat role. This is one scenario that many military analysts have postulated could be the opening refrain of World War 3. Iran is already in an unholy alliance with Russia, China, and North Korea. If America goes bigfooting into the fray, will Iran's allies in the new axis of evil allow them to simply go down?
These developments have also put the ongoing hostage negotiations and ceasefire discussions on ice for the time being Hamas and Israel had been scheduled to enter into a new round of negotiations on Thursday, but Hamas backed out of the talks after Ismail Haniyeh met his rather explosive end and some other retaliatory attacks took place. As of this weekend, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was asking Egyptian and Qatari mediators to intervene and seek a path to a ceasefire. But Egypt has largely tried to keep itself out of the middle of this mess for the most part, seeking to remain as neutral as possible so the war won't escalate in their direction. (It's kind of hard to blame them.)
Meanwhile, our Defense Department sent a guided missile submarine to the Middle East over the weekend. Lloyd Austin also ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to crank up its speed and get to the region more quickly. The Brits are still actively launching missions in the Red Sea region. Russia would probably already have ships en route if they didn't have their hands full with the Ukrainians. We appear to be plowing forward into uncharted territory at this point. And it's all happening while our commander-in-chief can barely finish a sentence unassisted and can't be kept up past his bedtime of 8 pm. These are frightening times indeed.
