There isn't going to be a deal made between Israel and Hamas any time soon, but at least we can hope for a peace settlement in Ukraine, right? For a brief moment this week, it began to look as if that might be a possibility. A group of world leaders are preparing to convene in Switzerland to discuss the terms of a possible ceasefire. When Vladimir Putin was asked about the meeting, he gave a rather surprising answer, saying that he was prepared to "immediately" order a ceasefire in Ukraine if certain conditions could be met. That hopeful state of play didn't last very long, however. As soon as he was informed of Putin's comments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Foreign Minister immediately shot the proposal down, labeling it as "absurd" and "manipulative." So it appears that we are back to the drawing board and there may not be any point to holding a peace conference in Switzerland. (NBC News)

Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Friday to “immediately” order a cease-fire in Ukraine and begin negotiations if Kyiv started withdrawing troops from the four regions annexed by Moscow in 2022 and renounced plans to join NATO.

Ukraine responded by calling Putin’s proposal “manipulative” and “absurd.”

Putin's remarks came as Switzerland prepared to host scores of world leaders — but not from Moscow — this weekend to try to map out first steps toward peace in Ukraine.  

They also coincided with a meeting of leaders of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations in Italy and after the U.S. and Ukraine this week also signed a 10-year security agreement that Russian officials, including Putin, denounced as “null and void.”

Vladimir Putin didn't take the news of Ukraine's response very well. He criticized the upcoming conference and rather ominously said that he was looking toward a "final resolution" in Ukraine, rather than a simple "freeze" in the military action. It was unclear whether that "final resolution" would take the form of some sort of negotiated peace or the destruction of Kyiv and the dissolution of the Ukrainian government. You really never can tell when it comes to Mad Vlad.

We've been batting around the possibilities as to what a negotiated peace deal might look like for quite a while now. Putin is calling for exactly what I predicted he would want. He wants Ukraine to concede the eastern parts of the country that Russia has annexed and a promise that Kyiv will abandon its ambitions to join NATO. In other words, he's looking to secure an agreement whereby he keeps all of the territory he's taken over the course of the war and prevent any further eastward expansion of the Western alliance.

It's understandable how Zelensky would initially react negatively to the proposal because Russia is basically demanding that Ukraine surrender and pull back all of its troops in exchange for a ceasefire. But flatly rejecting the proposal immediately and insulting Putin to boot doesn't seem like a wise approach now that they finally had Putin willing to at least discuss an end to the war. I've been predicting all year that Ukraine would eventually have to surrender some territory in exchange for peace and a chance to start rebuilding what's left of the country. If Zelensky had described the offer as "a starting point," Putin might be willing to negotiate a bit over the final shape of the borders, provided he gets enough territory to save face at home and demonstrate that Russia was getting something measurable in exchange for the losses they have incurred.

As for abandoning his aspirations to join NATO, Zelensky wouldn't be giving up much there. None of the other NATO members are ready to even consider Ukraine's application while they're in the middle of a war with a nuclear power. And we would be insane to consider it even after the war ends, assuming it does. A desire to stop NATO's further expansion to the east was one of the driving factors behind Putin's original decision to invade. If we allow Ukraine to join we would just be establishing another tension-packed border that might drag us all into a nuclear war the next time tensions flare up between Moscow and Kyiv. 

The last point I would make were Volodymyr Zelensky seeking my counsel is that Ukraine is currently losing this war rather badly. They are obviously incapable of "defeating Russia" and taking Moscow. They don't appear to be able to drive them out of the eastern part of their country either. If he allows this war to drag on for too long, there may not be a Ukraine left to argue over. Bad things happen in war and someone eventually has to lose. Sometimes half a loaf is better than none, and if Putin is willing to talk, Zelensky should probably at least try to cut a deal that works for both sides and keeps Ukraine intact, if somewhat smaller.