Taiwan held its presidential elections this week, elevating Lai Ching-te to power after incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen needed to step down because of term limits. The two were partners in the ruling, pro-independence party, so not much is expected to change in terms of policy. However, the election results sparked an angry response from China, despite the predictable nature of the process. Beijing launched a massive set of military exercises all around the island of Taiwan, with naval warships patrolling the Taiwan Strait and warplanes practicing bombing runs that threatened to cross into Taiwan's airspace. In response, Taiwan put its own fighter jets into the air and placed its naval and land-based military units on high alert. The region was already experiencing tense conditions, but this week was the closest they have come to open warfare in some time. (Associated Press)

Taiwan scrambled jets and put missile, naval and land units on alert Thursday over Chinese military exercises being conducted around the self-governing island democracy where a new president took office this week.

China’s military said its two-day exercises around Taiwan were punishment for separatist forces seeking independence. Beijing claims the island is part of China’s national territory and the People’s Liberation Army sends navy ships and warplanes into the Taiwan Strait and other areas around the island almost daily to wear down Taiwan’s defenses and seek to intimidate its people, who firmly back their de facto independence.

China’s “irrational provocation has jeopardized regional peace and stability,” the island’s Defense Ministry said. It said Taiwan will seek no conflicts but “will not shy away from one.

All of this saber-rattling probably looks worrisome, but we should keep in mind that it's all being done as a show for the benefit of an international audience. China is either going to invade Taiwan at some point or they aren't, but the outcome really isn't in question. Nobody realistically expects Taiwan to be able to defeat China in a hot war on its own no matter how many shipments of arms we send them. That's an unfortunate reality that mirrors the situation in Ukraine, which could never defeat Russia and take Moscow on its own. 

Taiwan is simply outgunned to a massive degree. Beijing has nearly 3,000 warplanes while Taipei boasts a little more than 700. China's naval fleet includes nearly 10,000 warships, vastly outnumbering Taiwan's 2,100. Once a crossing of the strait is achieved with heavy armor, China's nearly 5,000 tanks vastly outnumber Taiwan's 650. 

The only way Taiwan could prevail or even fend off a Chinese invasion would be with a massive incursion of allied troops and resources willing to fight the Chinese directly. The United States has long maintained that we would not directly intervene in the fighting were the situation to arise, although Joe Biden keeps messing up and insinuating that we would. And if America doesn't go in, you can rest assured that Australia and Japan will not be joining the battle either. Nobody seriously wants to get into a hot war with China at this point. We have enough issues to deal with already without that potentially nuclear scenario.

Not everyone agrees with that assessment, however. Foreign Policy Magazine recently opined that China would struggle to defeat Taiwan if it attempted a full invasion. They certainly have the manpower and the hardware, but China hasn't fought a real war in more than 40 years. They conduct plenty of training exercises, but their military lacks actual combat experience. We are reminded of how the Russian army significantly underperformed when they first went into Ukraine and headed for Kyiv. Combat experience counts for a lot. (Of course, at this point, the Russians have plenty of that.)

So why hasn't China invaded already? It's probably not because they are afraid of Taiwan, though it would be a costly and bloody war. China is more worried about the response of the rest of the world and how such an aggressive move might impact them economically in terms of anticipated sanctions and cancellations of trade deals. Most military analysts believe that the invasion will happen eventually, but probably not until sometime between 2027 and 2050. Given the current state of the world, however, we can't take anything for granted. The bombs could start falling tomorrow for all I know.