After months of ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas through intermediaries in Qatar seeming to be dead in the water, there are signs that a temporary breakthrough might be in the works. Surprisingly, the plan was reportedly proposed by Egypt, which had previously attempted to stay out of the hostilities as much as possible. There is nothing set in stone yet, but both Israel and Hamas have put out initial statements saying that they may be open to the proposal. If approved, it would not be a permanent end to the war, but there could be a three-week pause (with the possibility of it lasting considerably longer) in exchange for the release of additional hostages and Palestinian prisoners. Corridors would also be established to more quickly move food and other supplies into the Gaza Strip. (Wall Street Journal, subscription required)

Egypt offered a new proposal for a truce between Israel and Hamas in which some Israeli hostages would be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a three-week cease-fire, in a bid to stave off an Israeli military offensive in the southern Gazan city of Rafah.

Israel, which helped create the proposal, according to Egyptian officials, would commit to entering longer-term discussions once Hamas releases a first group of 20 hostages over the truce period—a formulation designed to overcome the militant group’s reluctance to release any hostages without any prospect of ending the war.

The move represents the latest effort by mediators to revive negotiations that have dragged on for about five months without an agreement.

The length of the ceasefire remains up in the air. Egypt was proposing three weeks, but Israel is generously talking about a ten-week pause that would allow thousands of Gazans currently in Rafah to either return home or at least to travel to shelters in other parts of the strip that have already been cleared. But none of this will happen unless Hamas first releases more hostages, including children, women (including female soldiers), and elderly people of both genders who require medical care. In exchange, Israel is willing to release an additional 500 Palestinian prisoners. 

Bibi Netanyahu is under a lot of pressure at home to make this happen. There have been demonstrations in the streets where speakers have called on him to prioritize the return of more hostages over the ongoing military campaign. It sounds as if he's been listening. He is refusing to forgo the assault on Rafah entirely, but he seems willing to put it off for a while if he gets more of his people back alive. It would be nice if the American hostages were returned also, assuming any of them are alive.

Of course, Hamas could still walk away from the table, even with such a generous offer being available. We've seen them do it before. But it's possible that the leaders of Hamas are looking for some breathing room and this might provide that. The remnants of Hamas' fighting brigades are pinned down in Rafah and if the IDF goes in there in full force, that will pretty much spell the end of their organized military capabilities. They will still be able to recruit Gaza "civilians" to engage in terror attacks, of course. But if they lose access to their network of tunnels and lose control of their weapons and rocketry supplies, they will be far less effective.

My normal, knee-jerk response to this proposal would have been to suggest that Israel should reject it and get on with the job of finishing off Hamas. But the more we hear about this proposal, the more inclined I am to think that Netanyahu should seriously consider it. Rafah isn't going anywhere and the IDF isn't going to allow Hamas' fighters to slip through the cracks at this late stage in the game. 

It would also be interesting to see what impact (if any) a 10-week respite in the fighting in Gaza would have on the social unrest gripping college campuses in the United States. Would the same people who have been demanding a "ceasefire now" calm down at all if an actual ceasefire took place and the fighting stopped for a couple of months? Would they even notice? I have my doubts, but it would be instructive to at least give them the opportunity.