Yesterday, Rust movie armorer Hannah Gutierrez-Reed was found guilty of involuntary manslaughter in the death of cinematographer Halyna Hutchins. The jury didn't even debate the matter for more than three hours. At sentencing, she will face up to 18 months in prison. So what, if anything does that tell us about the prospects for Alec Baldwin in his upcoming trial? The Associated Press points out that Baldwin will face the same judge and many of the same prosecutors when he faces the court in July. However, they suggest that the experience of taking part in the trial of Gutierrez-Reed (Baldwin was a witness who took the stand for quite a while) will provide them with valuable lessons as they seek to shift the blame away from the person who actually fired the fatal shot. 

The trial and conviction of a movie armorer in connection with a fatal shooting on the set of the Western movie “Rust” has given Alec Baldwin and his legal team an unusual window into how his own trial in the death could unfold.

A New Mexico jury deliberated less than three hours Wednesday before convicting armorer Hannah Gutierrez-Reed of involuntary manslaughter in the death of cinematographer Halyna Hutchins. She was swiftly taken into custody as she awaits sentencing, facing up to 18 months in prison.

Baldwin figured prominently into testimony and closing arguments over two weeks that highlighted his authority as a co-producer and the lead actor on “Rust.” Both the prosecution and defense in Gutierrez-Reed’s trial dissected video footage of Baldwin before the fatal shooting for clues about breakdowns in firearms safety.

I will confess that right from the beginning of this ordeal I've been unsure what, if any criminal penalties should be imposed. Something obviously went horribly and fatally wrong on that movie set and someone needed to be held accountable. I suppose manslaughter could be the appropriate conclusion provided the word "involuntary" was included. We've seen no evidence that would even suggest that Baldwin or anyone else had it out for Halyna Hutchins and wanted her to die. And yet she did.

As the chief armorer, Gutierrez-Reed was arguably at the top of the list of those responsible. We later learned of all of the inappropriate and dangerous horseplay that had been going on among the cast and crew during pauses in filming. Also, there was absolutely no reason, particularly in the modern era, for there to be a single live round of ammunition on that set. Part of the armorer's job had to have been ensuring there wasn't any, so she failed at that no matter who originally brought the live rounds into the area.

It wasn't Baldwin's job to personally monitor every round of ammo that was coming and going. However, given his position of responsibility over the entire production company, you can argue that he bears at least some responsibility. But during his trial, we're expecting to see a lot more focus on the final moments leading up to the fatal shot. We will likely also hear a lot more about the condition of the firearm. Baldwin claims that it malfunctioned and that he never pulled the trigger. Firearms experts have examined the weapon and argue that it couldn't have discharged without the trigger being pulled no matter which position the hammer was in. Sadly, there were apparently no cameras running at the time of the shooting to prove the story one way or the other.

A little contrition might go a long way with a jury, but that's something that's been missing from Alec Baldwin, at least from what I've seen. From the moment the shooting took place he seemed to be more concerned with his own potential liability than the fate of Halyna Hutchins, though I'm sure he was horrified by what had happened. His later insistence on trying to go back to the set and finish the film without her also seemed rather callous. This is a difficult case to predict. Every jury is potentially different, so a good enough legal team might be able to get Baldwin off the hook. It's far from assured, however.