Speaking of smelling blood in the water, Vladimir Putin finished his tour of the Middle East and returned home to ramp up his attack on Ukraine. Russia was already making slow but steady advances in the eastern part of the country, but now Putin is injecting new resources into its efforts to target the infrastructure of the eastern oblasts, aiming to lock down portions of the country that Ukraine had hoped to retake. According to an updated summary from the Associated Press, events in the United States and Western Europe are fueling Putin’s ambitions. The Russians believe that the global focus on the war in Gaza has led to a collapse in support for Ukraine and they will likely have more freedom to press the offensive through the winter months. Analysts familiar with the thinking of Russia’s leadership appear to agree.

After blunting Ukraine’s counteroffensive from the summer, Russia is building up its resources for a new stage of the war over the winter, which could involve trying to extend its gains in the east and deal significant blows to the country’s vital infrastructure.

Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be hoping that relentless military pressure, combined with changing Western political dynamics and a global focus on the Israeli-Hamas war, will drain support for Ukraine in the nearly 2-year-old war and force Kyiv to yield to Moscow’s demands.

“As far as the Russian leadership is concerned, the confrontation with the West has reached a turning point: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed, Russia is more confident than ever, and the cracks in Western solidarity are spreading,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow with Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, in a recent analysis.

You can confidently anticipate the cries from Democrats and war hawks in the United States blaming House Republicans for this shift in Putin’s strategy. By stalling the next aid package to Ukraine to secure concessions on our own border security, they will say that we have sacrificed Ukraine to Russia. But that remains a nonsensical claim. Ukraine has yet to fully run out of the last rounds of funding and arms, but none of the aid the nation has received from the United States and other nations has made much of a difference in the status quo on the battlefield.

It’s clearly true that all of the aid that has been sent to Kyiv has been critical in stopping Russia from completely overwhelming the country and obliterating its government. But that’s not the same thing as “defeating Russia” or even taking back the eastern territories it invaded in 2014. Those were the stated objectives of Zelensky as well as Joe Biden. But it simply hasn’t happened. As the linked analysis confirms, the Ukrainian summer counteroffensive almost entirely failed while Russia continued to pound away at the country’s infrastructure.

One of the interesting comments to come out of the Kremlin’s latest release is a suggestion that the new Russian offensive might force Kyiv to “yield to Russia’s demands. ” If Putin is willing to discuss demands, that indicates that he may be ready to enter into talks leading to a negotiated truce. I remain convinced that Vladimir Putin is aware that support for the war among his own people is steadily eroding. There are too many Russian soldiers and conscripts coming home in body bags or with permanent disabilities. What was originally anticipated to be a rapid beheading of the government in Kyiv has turned into a two-year quagmire of blood and guts. In his own way, Vladimir Putin probably would like to see an end to this war as much as the rest of us.

But at this point, that end will have to come on Putin’s terms to a large degree. Ukraine has been unable to demonstrate the ability to force him to the table otherwise. Neither Kyiv nor NATO will like those terms if and when we see them, of course. Putin will no doubt demand official recognition from both Ukraine and the West that the Crimean territory they have seized is now permanently part of Russia and that their access to a port on the Black Sea will not be questioned. In exchange, Putin could offer a complete ceasefire and the time and space needed for Ukraine to begin rebuilding its shattered infrastructure. (Which we will no doubt wind up paying for as well.)

Is that really such an unacceptable deal? At this point, it appears that the only choices are that sort of arrangement or years and years of crippling expenses in another endless war that does nothing to further the interests of the United States. Maps around the world have been redrawn before. It happens on a regular basis. Nobody likes to admit defeat, but this is a David vs. Goliath battle, and the reality is that Goliath will win nine times out of ten. If an opportunity to calm things down in Ukraine is put on the table, we shouldn’t turn our nose up at it.