Let’s not beat around the bush or try to paint too much lipstick on the 2023 election pig. Some very winnable races for the GOP slipped away just as they did in the midterms and Democrats played the abortion card with devastating results. Some adjustments are going to have to be made going into 2024, or we’re going to see more of the same. But that doesn’t mean the news was entirely bad for Republicans on November 7. There were some very solid victories racked up, with some coming in potentially unexpected places. ‘
It’s arguable that one of the biggest losers of the night was Joe Biden. His own party steered clear of him as much as possible this year and largely campaigned for their own pet causes or against the implied threat of the MAGA menace. That won’t help them next year if Biden is the nominee because they will all be riding his very unpopular coattails, like it or not.
Let’s look at some of the other GOP headlines you probably missed. The Republicans failed to retake the Governor’s mansion in Kentucky, but they cleaned house in the down-ballot races, including the Secretary of State. In Manchester, New Hampshire (always a state to watch), a Republican flipped the Mayor’s office from blue to red.
There was even more action to watch in New York State, long considered a blue gem for the Democrats. County Executive seats were taken from the Democrats in several places, including Suffolk County on Long Island which had been held by the Democrats for more than two decades. In Utica, one of the larger upstate cities, Republican Mike Galime ousted the incumbent Democratic Mayor. In Troy, right next to the state capital, Republican Carmella Mantello did the same, becoming the city’s first female mayor in the process. Keep in mind that reliably blue New York was also the scene in 2022 of Kathie Hochul barely fending off a GOP challenge for the Governor’s Mansion. We seem to be witnessing a trend.
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There were other high points as well, even if they didn’t involve flipping seats. In Mississippi, confident Democrats invested heavily and claimed they were set up for some surprise victories. But Republican Governor Tate Reeves deflated their balloon and coasted easily to victory.
Overall, the political sands may be shifting in interesting ways. A number of formerly predictable patterns don’t seem to be holding up these days. It’s true that the abortion debate is stirring the pot in the wrong direction in too many places, but Joe Biden and his administration are lugging around far too much baggage to simply sprint over the finish line. Biden has managed to anger a lot of people in his base, both with the border crisis and his position on Israel and Hamas. Many of those voters will clearly be at least considering other options next year. Smart Republicans will need to figure out a way to capitalize on that.
One method to consider should be a return to the old, standard saying that “all politics is local.” Particularly when it comes to congressional races, these need to be district-by-district fights, tailored to the concerns of those specific voters. Don’t make everything about Trump or a numbers game involving holding or losing the majority. If your district has been inundated with illegal migrants and rising crime rates, remind voters who the author of that disaster was and show them that you’re on a team that is laser-focused on fixing it. And if you’re running for national office (Congress, White House) and are hit with the abortion question, don’t be cowed toward a ledge. Do not be afraid to simply say, ‘I agree with the Supreme Court that this is an issue for each state to decide.’
The 2023 elections didn’t go swimmingly for the GOP and some pitfalls are waiting ahead. But that doesn’t mean 2024 has to be a debacle. Be smarter. Do better. Nothing changes if you lose, so find a way to win.
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