It’s no secret that Joe Biden’s latest polling numbers are an unmitigated dumpster fire. Whether you’re looking at overall approval ratings or individual demographic groups, Biden is at nearly historic lows. He’s trailing Donald Trump in most of the swing states currently, even in the estimation of his pet reporters at the New York Times. Thus far, the few comments from White House staffers on this subject have sounded like a collective shrug as they point out that Barack Obama’s numbers dipped in the third year of his first term as well. But as Matt Lewis points out in the Daily Beast this week, this isn’t really a valid comparison. Biden’s “horrific” numbers are coming at a time when the differences between him and his old boss couldn’t be more stark. Obama had a clear path to a comeback and he navigated it smoothly. The same can not be said for The Big Guy.

Despite a growing chorus of prominent voices who are calling for Biden to exit stage left, most liberal pundits seem content to brush off this poll and remind us that Barack Obama experienced a similar scare around a similar point in the 2012 cycle.

Unfortunately, this comparison doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. Obama was a once-in-a-generation political talent; Biden is not. Obama also had the potential to excite and drive the turnout of young voters and minority voters. Biden does not.

What is more, Obama was running against Mitt Romney, a Republican he could villainize and define (see the “war on women,” “binders full of women,” “the 47 percent,” etc.) and whose personal comportment caused to him to be not the most effective political pugilist.

It’s true that Presidents tend to sag in the polls in their third year. That’s because presidential candidates unswervingly tend to overpromise and underdeliver. Everyone wants to hear what you would like to do on the campaign trail, but after you arrive in Washington and the realities of the swamp begin to set in, expectations are always lowered. And as that reality sinks in, voters will almost always be less enthusiastic when the pollsters come calling.

Savvy politicians find a way to bounce back and that’s what Obama did in 2011. But he also had a lot to work with as Matt correctly points out. Mitt Romney was a career political figure, but he wasn’t exhaustively known at the national level. The Obama campaign dredged up all sorts of nuggets about him that eventually sank into the general public’s conscience. Donald Trump has already been the focus of more public and media attention than almost any other human being on the planet. Voters are unlikely to learn anything new about him at this point that might shake loose some of his devoted followers.

Obama was also a master with a microphone. He could persuade doubting supporters with his showmanship and inspirational sermons. Joe Biden is barely able to finish a sentence most days and regularly gives voters a reason to question whether he’s even capable of making it to bed that evening. Also, Obama created himself as the embodiment of “change.” He was something new and the prospect of surprising accomplishments no doubt kept a lot of people at the table for him. Joe Biden has been in Washington longer than most voters have been alive. There is nothing new to see here and the entire administration just feels stale.

Perhaps more than anything else, Obama was able to overcome a first-term sag because his base stuck with him through thick and thin. Biden’s disappointing performance thus far (to put it kindly) already has some parts of his base questioning his viability. Now he’s losing ground with the progressive left over his continued support for Israel. It’s a toxic formula in terms of preparing for another presidential campaign.

None of this means that Biden is definitively doomed at the polls. There are still plenty of people who would cast a vote for the rotting corpse of a skunk before they would pull the lever for Donald Trump. But the overall conditions in the country are not good at the moment (to say the least) and whatever persuadable voters remain out there are clearly considering other options. That’s being reflected in the latest polls, and I see no path that results in Joe Biden rising like the phoenix from the ashes.