The hope of preventing the Israeli-Hamas war from spreading into a more regional conflict appeared to diminish this morning. We learned that tensions along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon have increased to the point where Hezbollah fighters have been shooting out Israel’s security cameras. In response, Israel has begun evacuating 28 communities that exist within roughly one mile of the border. Residents will be temporarily moved to guesthouses funded by the state that are located further to the south. And Iran is continuing to make threatening noises, implying that they might take a more direct role if Israel doesn’t halt its retaliation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli Defense Minister said that his country is fully prepared to fight a two-front war if they must, but the people of Lebanon would be putting themselves at risk if that happens. (Fox News)

The Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli Defense Ministry announced Monday that they will be evacuating 28 communities along the northern border with Lebanon.

Northern Israeli residents who live in the area up to 2 kilometers, or about 1.2 miles, from the Lebanese border will be evacuated to state-funded guesthouses, according to the plan approved by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. As cross-border fire between Israel and the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah in Lebanon has increased in recent days, the plan to move Israelis will be implemented by the heads of the local municipalities, the Ministry of Interior and the National Emergency Management Authority of the Ministry of Defense.

What we are seeing here is a growing trend toward boldness in the Arab states and a greater willingness to strike a confrontational pose toward Israel. As we have been reminded repeatedly during the Biden administration, our adversaries can sense weakness and they tend to act accordingly. Traditionally, at least in the modern era, Arab nations were hesitant to become too aggressive toward Israel out of fear that the United States might step in and begin throwing its muscle around.

That’s not the case in the current scenario. The White House made it clear from day one that America would not be putting “boots on the ground” or fighting directly alongside Israel. Instead, we would just be “giving them what they need” to defend themselves. Lebanon, Iran, Syria, and others probably aren’t all that put off by such a position. After all, it’s exactly the same strategy we’ve followed in Ukraine and Russia certainly hasn’t been scared off by it. Plus, our adversaries gain the advantage of watching us bleed off all of our military resources in a pair of proxy wars while taking no damage themselves.

Is Hezbollah seriously contemplating coming over the border in force? Perhaps, but Bibi Netanyahu issued a warning to them today to avoid making a dangerous mistake.

Calling on the world to unite to join Israel’s push to defeat Hamas, Netanyahu issued a stark warning to the Hezbollah terror group and its Iranian backers, saying: “Don’t try us, you will be severely harmed.”

The premier also observed that Israel has started learning from the failures that led to Hamas’s deadly infiltration on October 7, saying that: “The reasons for the disaster that occurred will be investigated… and we have started drawing conclusions.”

Iran isn’t even trying to hide their involvement in the region these days. We’ve been able to follow the money and know that there wouldn’t be either a Hamas or Hezbollah if it weren’t for all of the Iranian cash flowing into the region. Perhaps more alarmingly, Iran knows that we know and they no longer seem to care.

So what is Israel’s best approach at this point? While it may seem counterintuitive and potentially too aggressive, perhaps Israel needs to do a lot more than just evacuate the Lebanese border region. Michael Oren offers a persuasive argument that Israel could leave Hamas where it is for now and just go after Hezbollah first. As Oren explains it, Hamas is bottled up in the Gaza Strip and isn’t going anywhere. And the longer they are cut off from most resources, the weaker they will become. Israel can move into Gaza at any time and clean up the rest of their forces. Meanwhile, Israel could begin a direct assault on the Hezbollah forces, potentially catching them by surprise.

The obvious counterargument to that approach is that anything interpreted as a direct military assault on Lebanon and not just the Hezbollah fighters could trigger a military response from Lebanon, potentially triggering other regional powers, including Iran, to take direct action. If the United States continues to refuse to engage directly, those forces could quickly amass enough power that they might take out Israel entirely (which has been their desire all along). But if they drag us into it, a response might soon be forthcoming from Russia or China, if not both, and then we’re looking at another World War Three scenario. So none of this looks good at the moment, and we’re left to rely on Joe Biden to navigate this potentially treacherous terrain. God help us all.