The “evolution” of America’s plans to put Ukrainian pilots in American-built F-16 Fighting Falcons to combat Russian attacks has reached yet another stage. Initially, Joe Biden opposed the idea, preferring to stick with ground combat technology, rockets, and drones. Then, after Europe pushed in the other direction, Biden said we would train Ukrainian pilots so long as someone else gave them the actual planes. This clearly excited the Ukrainians and people were estimating that F-16s could be flying over Kyiv by September. But this week we learned that it’s going to take longer. Much longer. In fact, the first Ukrainian pilots may not be ready to take to the air until next summer. So what’s causing the delay? It’s mostly just wavering and delays coming from the White House. (Washington Post)

A first group of six Ukrainian pilots is not expected to complete training on the U.S.-made F-16 before next summer, senior Ukrainian government and military officials said, following a series of delays by Western partners in implementing an instruction program for the sophisticated fighter jet.

The timeline reflects the disconnect between Ukraine’s supporters, who envision F-16s as a key tool in the country’s long-term defense, and Kyiv, which has desperately requested that the jets reach the battle space as soon as possible, viewing them as critical for the current fight against occupying Russian forces.

President Biden, after denying Ukrainian appeals for the F-16 for more than a year, reversed course in May and said he backed the idea of training Ukrainian pilots on the jets, and supported the transfer of the planes by other countries. Denmark and the Netherlands volunteered to lead a training effort, prompting hopes among officials in Kyiv that the planes would be defending Ukrainian airspace by as early as September.

Even if this plan doesn’t get pushed back even further (and we can’t rule that out) the initial class will only be composed of six pilots, with the possibility of two reservists also attending. Six Falcons aren’t even a full squadron. And while F-16s are among the best fighter jets in the world, they are not invulnerable. The Russians have air defense systems including the S-400 missile array that are capable of bringing down a Falcon, particularly if the pilot is relatively inexperienced. How much of a “game changer” would this really be?

And let’s circle back to the latest delay. We’ve already been funding and provoking this war for more than a year and a half. Are they telling us that we’re still going to be doing this for at least another full year into the summer of 2024? And how far beyond that? If we’re going to be stuck in another forever war – even if it’s a proxy war – it is long past time that a vote was held on this in Congress. Everyone needs to put their cards on the table. Putin has made it clear at this point that he has no intention of backing down or even seriously approaching the negotiating table. His strategy currently appears to be to keep hitting Ukraine until there’s nothing left to blow up and nobody left to kill. We didn’t sign on for this. It’s just fine for the Europeans to keep cheering on Ukraine when America is the country that’s writing almost all of the checks. And we can cheer on the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian people as loudly as we wish, but Ukraine is not capable of defeating the Russian military. Let’s stop pretending that they are.

Here’s one more huge question to ponder after learning of this latest news. What took Joe Biden so long to support the idea of F-16s to Ukraine and why is he vacillating so much on the pilot training question? One former Supreme Commander of the NATO Allied Forces in Europe thinks he knows the answer. Biden is afraid of further provoking Russia.

Philip Breedlove, former Supreme Commander of the NATO Allied Forces in Europe, believes that preparations for the exercises of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets are slowing down because some countries are afraid to provoke Russia.

The retired American general says many countries are now ready to start training Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16s. Preliminary plans were developed, but “the main slowdown in this process is taking place inside” the United States, he said.

“There is restraint regarding quick action due to fears that Mr. Putin may cause certain important events. As I have said many times, the situation with the F-16s is just the case,” Breedlove said.

I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s part of the answer to this mystery. The one word that has characterized Biden’s response to the Russian invasion from the beginning is “indecisive.” But is there more to it than just that? Stop and consider all of the mounting evidence that’s been coming out of the House Oversight Committee this year. The Bidens took a ton of money from Ukraine, but they also took millions from prominent Russian oligarchs with ties to Putin. If any of those people decided to start running their mouths, they could cause a lot of trouble back home for Uncle Joe. Is Joe Biden simply too compromised to act decisively regarding Russia and Ukraine? And how might his son’s “business dealings” in China impact our response if they decide to go ahead and invade Taiwan? None of this looks good and we’re not getting any answers we can rely on.