Politico is sounding the alarm for Democrats today, warning that the public is clearly not very excited about supporting them in next year’s elections. One of the clearest signals of voter enthusiasm is traditionally seen in grassroots fundraising numbers since people who are excited about voting tend to be more willing to open their wallets. But small-dollar donations for Democrats in the primary season are currently well below where they were during the previous presidential cycle. Donations for the first half of this year are more than $30 million dollars lower than they were at this point in 2019. And one of the leading drivers is clearly a lack of enthusiasm for another term in office for Joe Biden.

One of the best online fundraising days for Democrats this year was the day of Joe Biden’s campaign launch — but even that day’s haul was meager compared to his campaign kickoff four years ago.

That’s among the findings of an analysis of fundraising for the first half of the year through ActBlue, the party’s primary donation processor. Small-dollar giving at the federal level totaled $312 million in the first half of 2023 — a drop-off of more than $30 million compared to this point in the 2020 cycle. The platform also had 32 percent fewer donors in the second quarter this year compared to four years prior, although its total fundraising including state and local campaigns increased slightly due to more recurring donors.

Before Republicans begin popping champagne corks too early, we should remember that these donations are coming in for the primary season. Since Biden stubbornly insists that he will be running for a second term, the Democrats don’t really have much in the way of an actual presidential primary going on, as much as RFK Jr. might wish to disagree. That could be hindering some of the donor enthusiasm.

But these numbers are still abysmal. And it’s not just the raw amount of money coming into the Dems’ coffers that is down. The number of individual donors contributing to the Democrats in the first six months of the year fell by 32% compared to four years ago. One adviser to Bernie Sanders described the general attitude of the Democratic base as “whistling past the graveyard.”

One of the main assumptions of Democratic strategists this cycle has been that the “threat” of a second term for Donald Trump would drive donors and voters in droves. That certainly was the case in 2020. As long as they keep talking about Trump 24/7, it was obviously believed that he would basically serve as Biden’s poster boy. But at least thus far, the Bad Orange Man doesn’t seem to be motivating liberal donors to shower money on the party’s leaders.

One factor behind these sagging fundraising numbers may be the fact that the ongoing inflation in the Biden economy means that many rank-and-file voters simply don’t have as much money to give. The President’s approval ratings for how he’s handling the economy have been in the tank for most of his presidency. And in a broader sense, what has Biden done to inspire confidence in his base and drive donations? Even his own supporters have been able to observe his severe cognitive decline and they are increasingly learning about the very credible allegations of corruption on the part of Joe and Hunter Biden, despite the legacy media’s best efforts to keep these developments secret.

It’s still far too early in the process to draw any firm conclusions and there is still a political eternity between now and the general election. Republicans clearly can’t afford to become complacent at this point or take anything for granted. But if this fundraising trend holds through the end of the year, the hill that the GOP needs to climb might not be quite as steep as some of us have feared. Fingers crossed.