Ever since the aborted Wagner Group uprising in Russia last month, the future of the mercenary group has been up in the air. We’ve seen multiple reports claiming that Vladimir Putin offered to allow the fighters to enlist in the regular Russian army, but the idea didn’t seem very popular among the mercenaries. But now we may have a better idea of where they are heading. Video has emerged of some Wagner fighters in Belarus, providing training to Belarusian soldiers. There have been no reports of fighting inside of that country, so at least for now, it would appear that the fighters are simply holding drills at the invitation of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko. The one figure that has still not been seen in either Belarus or Russia is Yevgeny Prigozhin, assuming that he is still among the living, which may be a large assumption. (NY Post)

Wagner mercenaries have started arriving in Belarus following their aborted mutiny on Moscow, Ukrainian border officials said.

The DPSU, Ukraine’s border guard service, said it is looking into how many “militants” are in Belarus after approximately 60 Wagner vehicles reportedly crossed the border into the Russian ally on Saturday, BBC reported.

The reported arrival comes after Wagner fighters were given the option of either joining the regular Russian army or going to Belarus after a 24-hour rebellion by the mercenary force last month.

We’re forced to rely on state media for the few details that we’re receiving, so take that as you will. But it doesn’t sound like a mass mobilization of the Wagner fighters. Roughly 60 vehicles from the mercenary group were seen crossing into Belarus, so there could be several hundred fighters in the country. But that’s still well short of the thousands that Prigozhin was able to summon on the battlefields of Ukraine. These are seasoned, well-equipped fighters, so perhaps Lukashenko simply wanted his troops to receive some training from people with actual combat experience.

But if not, what else would they be doing there? Newsweek quotes one Russian lawmaker who has offered an alternative explanation. He claims that the Wagner fighters are in Belarus preparing for an attack on Poland. But that simply sounds insane.

Russian lawmaker Andrey Kartapolov suggested that President Vladimir Putin expelled the Wagner Group to Belarus to allegedly prepare for an attack against Poland during a recent appearance on Russian state television.

Last month, Putin exiled Wagner Group forces to Belarus following a failed mutiny against Russian military leadership that followed months of simmering tensions over Moscow’s stagnant invasion of Ukraine, which has seen Russian forces struggle to achieve their goals despite the vast size of its military. The attempted rebellion saw a breakdown of relations between the Kremlin and Wagner Group founder and leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, a longtime Putin ally. Meanwhile, much about the paramilitary organization’s plans in Belarus remain unknown.

That would be an interesting if terrifying twist. If the Wagner Group attacked inside of Poland, would that count as Russia attacking a NATO ally? If so, that would trigger NATO Article 5 and we could be looking at world war three. But the Wagner group isn’t technically part of the Russian military, nor do they appear to be acting under the orders of the Russian president. If a group of mercenaries from a foreign country show up and start attacking forces in Poland, they might just be viewed as independent actors and criminals, so the Polish forces could arrest them or put them down.

But to what purpose? Putin doesn’t exactly appear stable on the best of days anymore, but even he can’t be that crazy, can he? Prigozhin or whoever is in charge of Wagner this week would have to have some reason to launch an offensive into another NATO country that’s not currently engaged in direct military action. The Wagner Group was fighting in Ukraine because their nation is at war. But nobody is at war with Poland, at least not yet. I’m not writing off the possibility that Andrey Kartapolov was just stirring the pot with this suggestion and looking to generate a few headlines. And Wagner forces training Belarusian troops makes a lot more sense than a seemingly random invasion of Poland.