We’ve been beating on this drum for quite a while now and it appears that the message is finally sinking in around the country. When it comes to the issue of allowing males to compete in women’s and girls’ sports, the public sentiment is definitely shifting and it’s happening rapidly. (Just for the record, I am refusing to use the phrase “biological males” going forward because it’s simply stupid.) The latest data on this subject comes to us from the annual Gallup Polls Values and Beliefs survey, which was just released. On the topic of transgender athletes competing in women’s sports, there has been a rather dramatic shift in just the past two years. The most glaring figure comes in the form of the question, “Should transgender athletes only be allowed to compete on sports teams that conform with their birth gender?” In 2021, 62% said yes. Two years later, that number has risen to 69%. And there are plenty of related questions where this trend is showing up.

A larger majority of Americans now (69%) than in 2021 (62%) say transgender athletes should only be allowed to compete on sports teams that conform with their birth gender. Likewise, fewer endorse transgender athletes being able to play on teams that match their current gender identity, 26%, down from 34%.

These results are based on Gallup’s annual Values and Beliefs survey, conducted May 1-24.

The issue has sparked debate at all levels of competitive sports, particularly around transgender women’s ability to play on women’s teams. Sports governing bodies and schools have adopted a range of policies on the issue, some more inclusive of transgender participation than others.

The percentage of respondents who took the opposite position, saying that trans athletes should be able to compete on sports teams that match their gender “identity” similarly declined. That number plunged eight points from 34% in 2021 to 26% today.

One constant argument we hear from the left is ‘You’d be more accepting of this if you actually knew transgender people.’ (For the record, I do know some, including two relatives.) But this survey pokes holes in that argument also. The percentage of people saying that they know someone who is transgender has risen from 31 to 39 percent in two years. But even among that population, support for this idea has declined significantly. Two years ago, 40% of those saying they know someone who is trans said they supported allowing those athletes to compete based on their gender “identity.” Today, that number has plummeted to 30%.

The survey goes deeper and covers general feelings about transgenderism. I was somewhat surprised to see that a smaller majority (55%) say that “changing one’s gender” is “morally wrong.” 43% found it to be “morally acceptable.” Those numbers shifted in parallel directions by four and three percent respectively. I’ve really never considered that question. We’re talking about people with mental and/or emotional issues. That’s not something I believe should be placed on any sort of moral vs. immoral or good vs. evil curve.

Gallup concludes with one observation that seems to line up with both their own statistics and basic logic. They observe that Americans tend to view transgender sports participation “more through a lens of competitive fairness than transgender civil rights.” And that sounds correct to me. What I’d really be interested in seeing Gallup ask is if people felt they could correctly define what “a woman” is and offer them some possible definitions. I would wager that trans activists would be shocked and dismayed by the results.

These results speak to one question that’s been making the round quite a bit lately. “Can conservatives win the culture wars?” The continued shift on the question of trans athletes and fairness in women’s sports suggests that the message is getting through and people are increasingly shifting toward sanity and common sense. And we already know that very strong majorities of people are now opposed to trans medical procedures for children and at least two-thirds of Americans know there are only two genders. It was looking dark there for a while, but don’t despair because this battle is far from over. And I would argue that we’re winning, though it will take time.