The White House today welcomed the President of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol, for an official state visit with Joe Biden. One of the items on the agenda to discuss was probably the recent announcement that American nuclear submarines would begin scheduling “dock visits” to at least one port in South Korea. American nuclear submarines haven’t docked there since the height of the cold war more than forty years ago. But this arrangement is part of a campaign promise that Yoon Suk Yeol made while running for office. He committed to welcoming a stronger American military presence as a show of force to deter Kim Jong-un from launching an attack from the north. But will that be the actual result? (Associated Press)
Presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk Yeol on Wednesday will sign an agreement that includes plans to have U.S. nuclear-armed submarines dock in South Korea for the first time in more than 40 years, a conspicuous show of support to Seoul amid growing concern about nuclear threats by North Korea, according to senior Biden administration officials.
The planned dock visits are a key element of what’s being dubbed the “Washington Declaration,” aimed at deterring North Korea from carrying out an attack on its neighbor. It is being unveiled as Biden is hosting Yoon for a state visit during a moment of heightened anxiety for both leaders over an increased pace of ballistic missile tests by North Korea over the last several months.
Despite the fact that the Biden administration seems to be daring China to invade Taiwan on a daily basis, I don’t have any fundamental objection to increasing our naval presence in the region. We’re going to need that sort of projection of power in the western Pacific sooner or later and at the rate we seem to be losing allies, we need to keep access to all the ports we have left.
But it’s worth considering what the immediate and long-term implications will be in terms of both Pyongyang and Beijing. North Korea has been increasingly belligerent ever since Donald Trump left office and many Asian analysts expect Kim to conduct another test of his nuclear warheads in the near future. Perhaps having a boomer with a load of nukes in its silos could give him pause. (‘Hey, pal… these missiles could reach you in a matter of minutes and you’ll never see them coming.’)
But that theory depends on believing that Kim Jong-un really isn’t nearly as crazy as he frequently talks and acts. If he is seriously unstable, news of our subs showing up might what pushes him over the edge. Personally, I tend to side with the analysts who claim that Kim’s bluster is primarily just a show he puts on for his own people to keep them frightened of the West and willing to go along with his agenda. Also, Kim has to be aware that any first strike by him would result in the complete obliteration of his country in a matter of days if not hours.
China is another matter. Xi Jinping has been building and deploying naval forces at a furious pace. He already has plenty of air power and missiles of his own. It’s not as if we don’t regularly have nuclear subs in that region on a nearly constant basis without telling anyone and China no doubt knows that. But this agreement with South Korea will raise the visibility of that reality. So a similar question applies here. Do our subs provide more of a deterrent to a potential invasion of Taiwan or might they trigger one?
These are complicated questions that are well above my pay grade. That’s why it’s important to have competent, stable people in charge at the Pentagon, the State Department, and the White House. So… do you feel better yet?
