The continued rioting, mass looting, arson, and violence we’ve been seeing in so many large cities lately should leave conservatives with questions. At Townhall, our colleague Matt Vespa asks the question that is probably on many of your minds these days. Traditionally, Republicans have been the party of law and order while Democrats continue to push soft-on-crime District Attorneys and plans to dismantle the police. So how are Democrats still winning in too many places? Why is Joe Biden in the White House? As Matt puts it, why isn’t law and order a slam dunk winning campaign message?

A horde of teenagers in Chicago ran wild over the weekend, leading to arrests – but not before mayhem and gunfire were exchanged. The stories about crime increasing are numerous, and it goes beyond New York City. The nation’s capital is no longer as safe as it once was; there have been multiple shootings and stabbings along the Metro system. Carjackings in DC are also increasing, with no vehicle safe from the hands of criminals. Priuses are getting jacked, folks. The left made a concerted effort to elect soft-on-crime progressive district attorneys that have turned their surrounding areas into havens for criminality. You’d think that law and order would resonate. It hasn’t, at least not in a meaningful way where Republicans could reap the political benefits at the ballot box. So does the GOP stay on message, or does it need a retool? …

Like national security, voters tend to trust Republicans to keep them safe at home and abroad. Yet, the 2022 election proved that this message didn’t resonate. It fell flat during the critical race that decided the composition of the Wisconsin Supreme Court. We all see the stories, many of them local—why are voters hesitant about pulling the lever for Republicans?

I can answer Matt’s first question featured in the excerpt above. When it comes to running on principles of law and order, Republican candidates can absolutely not afford to “retool.” Joining the Democrats in abandoning security on the home front would be tantamount to shuttering democracy and fully turning the United States into a scene from Mad Max. Further, I refuse to believe anywhere near a majority of voters are content with scenes of mayhem in the streets, carjackings and destruction.

But there is a lot more on the ballot every two years than just questions of law and order. Also, persuading voters often relies on the messenger as much as the message. Reading through the rest of Matt’s analysis, he tosses out a couple of possible ways to address this conundrum. He does address the issue of candidate quality in that regard. The GOP sailed into the last midterms with a crew that included some characters who were dubious at best. (Herschel Walker comes to mind immediately, but there were plenty of others.)

We can wish for better candidates that will be less offputting to independent voters, but those choices are made during the primary process. And that may be a significant part of the problem when it comes to winning over independents because the primaries tend to be dominated in both parties by the candidates who run to the extreme left or right. Sadly, there’s not much to be done about that beyond trying to rally your fellow primary voters to support and donate to the most promising candidates.

Matt also addresses the 800-pound orange gorilla in the room. Donald Trump simply cannot be ignored in this conversation. I remain a big fan of both a significant percentage of his policies and the results he achieved during his term as president. But in political terms, the man is chaos incarnate. This isn’t to say that everyone is put off by chaos, but it’s impossible to deny that many people are. Trump overshadowed the entire 2022 midterms and he wasn’t even anywhere on the ballot. The primary candidates he endorsed frequently (though not always) rocketed into the lead in their races. But the general election results speak for themselves.

As things stand now, there are obviously a lot of people who would love to see a return to law and order in our streets, but they will never pull the lever for the Bad Orange Man even if they have previously voted for Republicans in other races. And just carrying Donald Trump’s endorsement may turn off too many voters further down the ballot in marginal swing states and districts. So we appear to have a choice between asking Donald Trump to tone things down a bit and moderate his approach (does anyone really see that happening in this lifetime?) or risking another razor-thin loss of the White House again next year. And frankly, I’m nowhere near as optimistic as I was (incorrectly, obviously) in 2022.