From the beginning of the invasion, the one question that has consumed the media and every intelligence official willing to discuss it involves when and how the war ends. Those hoping for a quick wrap-up were obviously disappointed since we’re now in the second year of the war. But former CIA official James Olson thinks that an unexpected end to the hostilities may be on the horizon, coming in a potentially unexpected way. During an interview with the Sun newspaper, Olson predicted that Vladimir Putin can and probably will be taken out by his own people, potentially Russian military officials who are reportedly getting “fed up” with the war and Russia’s failure to seal the deal one way or the other. (NY Post)

Russia’s Vladimir Putin could be eliminated by his own military brass fed up with catastrophic losses in Ukraine, which would finally bring the war to an end, according to an ex-CIA official.

James Olson, a decorated former chief of counterintelligence, labeled Putin a “dead man walking” in a candid exclusive interview with the Sun.

“It is not going well at all. I believe Putin is in a no-win situation now,” the 30-year veteran of the spy agency said.

Here’s the scenario that Olson described. Putin will never give up and withdraw his forces from Ukraine without at least securing all of the regions that he illegally “annexed” last year. But the Russian military has proven unable to make those types of gains and hold the territory. That means that war could drag on for years with more and more Russian soldiers being killed.

In that scenario, the “fed up” senior Russian military officials would either depose and replace Putin or, perhaps more likely, assassinate him. I don’t think we can rule out this scenario at this point. Neither side appears to be able to achieve a complete victory. Ukraine has proven to be a determined opponent, but even with western military weapons, they can’t completely overwhelm or wipe out the Russian forces and Putin keeps sending in more reserves.

But that leaves us with the biggest question. Even if Russia’s military leadership is leaning in this direction, who will hang the bell on the cat? It’s one thing to say that you would like to eliminate the President. It’s quite another to get past all of his personal security and do the deed.

And even if they manage it, who will take over in Putin’s place? The most likely candidates that have been mentioned are all viewed as being at least as bad as Putin if not worse. The first impulse for most of them would likely be to try to continue the war. But then again, if they see Putin on the floor at room temperature, they might think better of it and order the military to pull back and end the hostilities.

The one bright spot in this hypothetical scenario is that it would be immediately obvious that Putin was taken out by his own people or perhaps some sort of “accident.” If it looks too much like an assassination was pulled off by Ukraine, the United States or some other NATO ally, there would likely be calls for revenge. But if Putin’s generals do the deed themselves, it remains “an internal matter.” And that might be the best we can hope for at this point.