Russia is still cutting deals with China, Iran, and North Korea to make sure they don’t run out of missiles and ammunition, but there’s one thing that they can’t import in any significant numbers. What they’re running short of are soldiers. Moscow doesn’t publish precise figures, but one recent estimate puts the Russian death toll in Ukraine at more than 70,000. Others suspect that the true figure is closer to 100,000. And then there are the tens of thousands who survived but were too grievously injured to return to combat. With the ranks thinning so badly, Vladimir Putin has launched a new recruiting campaign. State television is running advertisements offering significant cash bonuses for volunteers and recruiters are cold-calling college students and the unemployed. But if the numbers don’t climb dramatically, Putin may need to declare another mobilization of reservists, something he has been trying to avoid. (Associated Press)

Advertisements promise cash bonuses and enticing benefits. Recruiters are making cold calls to eligible men. Enlistment offices are working with universities and social service agencies to lure students and the unemployed.

A new campaign is underway this spring across Russia, seeking recruits to replenish its troops for the war in Ukraine.

As fighting grinds on in Ukrainian battlegrounds like Bakhmut and both sides prepare for counteroffensives that could cost even more lives, the Kremlin’s war machine badly needs new recruits.

To put this in perspective, the number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine thus far is more than one-fifth the total number of troops in the United States Army. They’ve been able to recruit as many as 10,000 former Afghan soldiers (who ironically used to fight for us) with promises of citizenship and good pay. But that well has been drying up and it hasn’t gotten them anywhere near the level required to replace all of the combat deaths over the past year.

This is turning into a serious problem for Putin. Every male under the age of 65 is technically part of the Russian reserve forces and eligible to be called up. But when the last reserve mobilization was announced, countless Russians fled the country to avoid being sent to the front lines. The same thing will likely happen if a second mobilization is announced.

Targeting unemployed workers and college students with recruiting calls probably seems like a smart move. But this is still Russia that we’re talking about. If the person answering the phone doesn’t seem eager to take the recruiter up on their offer, it might be “suggested” that bad things could happen if they decline. But will this strategy get the Russian army back to its full staffing levels? That’s a lot of phone calls to make.

One other disturbing piece of news out of the Kremlin showed up last night, but it doesn’t involve moving troops. Putin has ordered nuclear weapons to be moved into Belarus.

Russia will station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus, President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday, marking the first time since the mid-1990s that Moscow will have based such arms outside the country.

Putin made the announcement at a time of growing tensions with the West over the Ukraine war and as some Russian commentators speculate about possible nuclear strikes.

Analysts quoted in the CNBC report describe this move as being “significant.” Russia hasn’t put any nukes in other countries for decades. And Belarus borders Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, all NATO members. From the beginning of the invasion, Putin has made vague threats about the destruction of NATO capitals if any of his “red lines” are crossed.

What’s worrisome about this move is that it’s coming at the same time as the troop shortage discussed above. This could just be more posturing to try to get the west to back down on its support of Ukraine. But if Vladimir Putin truly grows desperate and suspects he could lose this war entirely, would he take things to a worst-case scenario? Is he really that crazy? I’m afraid we can’t rule out that possibility entirely at this point.