Will Israel launch a first strike on Iran?

Yonatan Sindel/Pool via AP

For most of the first half of Joe Biden’s presidency, he had a team of people locked into fruitless, bungled talks intended to draw Iran back into the disastrous nuclear deal that Barack Obama had originally set up. The end result was that one of the latest members of the new Axis of Evil walked away while continuing to enrich uranium, growing closer and closer to the ability to produce a nuclear weapon. In fact, one official from the IAEA said earlier this year that the UN believes Iran has already crossed the threshold and has enough fuel to build “several” bombs if it chooses to do so. Biden’s failure to get the situation under control has left Isreal, one of America’s closest allies, with a difficult choice. Will they stand by and let this happen or step in to shut down Iran’s nuclear program by force? According to one retired Israeli general who leads a defense and security think tank, Isreal could launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in as little as three months. (Free Beacon)

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The Biden administration’s failure to present a credible military response to Iran’s expanding nuclear program has brought Israel closer than ever to launching a military strike on Tehran, according to a retired Israeli general.

Retired brigadier general Amir Avivi, who spent 30 years in the Israel Defense Forces and now serves as chairman of the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank, predicted that Israel could launch a strike in as little as three months if the Biden administration does not unite its Middle Eastern allies around a plan to combat Iran’s march toward a nuclear weapon.

Avivi qualified his statement, saying that three months would be the minimum at this point, and it could be six months or even a year. But barring some major changes on the playing field, he clearly thinks that an attack is in the works.

The major driver of these developments turns out to be the war in Ukraine. (Try not to faint from shock.) Iran is now supplying military hardware and technology to Russia for use against Ukraine. In exchange, it’s believed that Russia is preparing to give the Iranians advanced air defense systems. That would make it much harder for Israel to launch a successful strike on the Nuclear Technology Center of Isfahan and other places where plutonium refinement is taking place.

Avivi went on to blame the United States for not “stepping up” to build a coalition to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions and “sitting on the fence.” And now that Iran has closed a deal to formally align with Saudi Arabia, any united front against Iran in the region will be significantly weakened. The progress made in that area under the Trump administration has pretty much evaporated over the past two years.

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It’s notable that Isreal has been almost entirely silent over these developments, at least in terms of official statements. Avivi was asked about this. He said, “a barking dog does not bite. When you don’t hear anything from Israel, this means we are done talking.” Of course, he’s not speaking officially on behalf of the Israeli government, but it was still a rather chilling remark.

I don’t think many people expected Joe Biden to be a foreign policy genius given his history over the years. But U.S. foreign policy has turned out to be even more of a disaster than some of us feared. We’re not just talking about the situation with Israel and Saudi Arabia here. We are losing alliances across the pacific and in South America while China continues to expand its sphere of influence. At the same time, we’re rapidly draining our own military resources to keep Ukraine afloat, weakening the threat of any potential military action on our part. Things are heading in a dark direction on the foreign policy front and if this train winds up going fully off the tracks, we shouldn’t pretend to be surprised.

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Ed Morrissey 12:40 PM | November 21, 2024
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