China planning satellite constellation to "suppress" or destroy Starlink

(209 kilometers)

Someone should probably forward this to Elon Musk because it sounds like China is gunning for him, possibly in a quite literal fashion. The South China Morning Post is reporting that China has begun a space program that aims to put nearly 13,000 satellites into low-Earth orbit in the next four years. Most of these (but not all) will be communications satellites intended to create a global network to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink program. The Chinese claim that they’re trying to make sure they get their fair share of orbital slots, which seems harmless enough. But they’ll be doing more than just that. The announcement speaks of a plan to “suppress” Starlink (whatever that means) and possibly some even more direct attacks on SpaceX equipment.

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Researchers say China plans to build a huge satellite network in near-Earth orbit to provide internet services to users around the world – and to stifle Elon Musk’s Starlink.

The project has the code name “GW”, according to a team led by associate professor Xu Can with the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Space Engineering University in Beijing. But what these letters stand for is unclear.

The GW constellation will include 12,992 satellites owned by the newly established China Satellite Network Group Co, Xu and his colleagues said in a paper about anti-Starlink measures published in the Chinese journal Command Control and Simulation on February 15.

Even if this was just a matter of space real estate, the explanation from the Chinese makes little sense. They claim to be ensuring that they have “a place in low orbit” and want to “prevent the Starlink constellation from excessively pre-empting low-orbit resources.” But as Douglas Adams once pointed out in the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, “space is big. Really big. You just won’t believe how vastly hugely mind-bogglingly big it is.”

Yes, we’ve dumped a ton of refuse into the orbital junkyard that now surrounds our planet and there are thousands of satellites up there. But it’s still mostly empty space and those birds are not close to being bumper-to-bumper yet. There would be room for two constellations of satellites with plenty to spare.

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The announcement also says that China plans to “gain opportunities and advantages at other orbital altitudes, and even suppress Starlink”. Given the translation issues, perhaps that just means they plan to compete with Starlink for customers. But it might also suggest some sort of electronic interference with the Starlink satellites.

The final threat in the announcement appears to remove all doubt. It claims that “new weapons, including lasers and high-power microwaves, would be developed and used to destroy Starlink satellites that pass over China or other sensitive regions.

We’ve discussed this here in the past and the situation appears to be growing steadily worse. The United States has fallen behind China in the development of offensive satellite technology and it’s going to take time to catch up. (Assuming we ever do.) The Chinese have begun launching birds that are far more maneuverable for a longer period of time than ours and it is believed that some of them already have offensive weapons capabilities. Or they could simply choose to crash into one of ours. It doesn’t take much to knock out a satellite. And while China hasn’t threatened to take out our military satellites yet, it sounds as if they may use Elon Musk’s gear for some target practice. This is not a good situation and we need to get on top of this.

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