In a more “normal” year, when control of the House of Representatives changes hands, we’d have known who the next Speaker was going to be by the time the final race had been called. But this is 2022 and not much passes for normal these days. We’re only three weeks away from the new Congress being seated and The Hill reports that cloakroom discussions are still taking place, with some of the more conservative members hunting for a possible alternative to current Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. There are several members who have publicly called for someone to step forward and toss their hat in the ring without suggesting that they want the job themself. That group includes Andy Biggs of Arizona. But what we’re not hearing is anyone putting their own name forward. It’s getting a bit awkward inside the GOP caucus, to say the least.
Searches for a Speaker alternative to House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) are slowly building momentum as he faces opposition that threatens to sink his bid.
On one side, McCarthy’s fiercest detractors are teasing that there are people interested in being a viable GOP consensus substitute for the current minority leader. On the other, members say preliminary conversations are happening among Republicans and Democrats about a possible contingency candidate if McCarthy cannot win the gavel after multiple ballots in the new GOP-majority House next month.
Neither side will name names, fearing that anyone mentioned as a candidate would get intense blowback.
There are still some members saying they would prefer not to vote for McCarthy to be the next Speaker, but aside from rumors, we don’t have a clear indication of who they would want to vote for instead. As noted above, nobody is stepping forward at this point and the reason for that is found in a pearl of wisdom from Omar Little on the HBO series The Wire. You come at the king, you best not miss. (And in case you somehow never watched it, I still rate The Wire as being among the best television series ever made. It also gives you a keen look inside the city of Baltimore, its government, and the gangs who run the streets.)
Some of the members who might want to offer to take the job are clearly worried about potential blowback from making the attempt. If you challenge McCarthy and he still becomes Speaker, you could find yourself without the choice committee seats you’ve enjoyed up until now. And that sort of infighting is what the Democrats dream of seeing.
I’ve never personally had a problem with Kevin McCarthy and I think he’s generally handled his leadership role well. I’ve been on plenty of conference calls with him and he’s always struck me as a smart, capable person, as well as a genuinely nice guy. And he’s at least as conservative as anyone you’ll find in California. (I know.) If he ends up with the gavel, I’m not going to be panicking over the party’s future for the next two years.
At the same time, however, I’m mindful of some of the voices on the right who insist that it’s time for some fresh blood and a change of direction in the GOP’s upper ranks. It’s impossible to deny that this year’s midterms were pretty much a debacle for Republicans and a definite missed opportunity. Can the blame for that be placed squarely on the shoulders of Kevin McCarthy? Absolutely not. There are multiple hands on the wheel of the GOP’s ship.
But the 2024 cycle holds a lot of promise for Republicans if they can get their act together. The Democrats will be defending 21 seats in the Senate while the GOP is only defending 10. If Joe Biden is actually daft enough to run again, I wouldn’t expect him to be much more popular than he is now. If he doesn’t, they don’t have a particularly deep bench from which to pick another candidate. And if they’re seriously considering Gavin Newsom you can tell how desperate they’re getting.
The GOP really can’t afford to let an opportunity like that go to waste. Whoever winds up winning the bid to be the next Speaker really needs to be able to clearly and coherently explain what went wrong this year and the specific steps they plan to take to make sure we don’t see a repeat performance next time. If they can’t manage to do that, the House Republicans should be looking elsewhere, in my opinion.
