Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a group of lawmakers have embarked on their tour of Asian nations, doing so without making any announcement about a stop in Taiwan. That hasn’t stopped the ongoing speculation as to whether or not she should carry through with the visit, both in western media and inside of China. And the Chinese appear to be growing increasingly hostile to the idea, issuing threats through state-run media.

The lack of an announcement about her plans may already be falling apart. This isn’t official, but reports are emerging that Pelosi will indeed land in Taiwan, but only off-the-record sources are cited.

JUST IN – Pelosi will arrive in Taipei, the capital of #Taiwan, tomorrow night, the Taiwanese broadcaster TVBS reports citing sources.

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) August 1, 2022

As I mentioned at the top, China is doing more than just suggesting that this could go badly. One prominent commentator with the Chinese-state-owned Global Times issued a warning in a tweet (which has since been blocked by Twitter) declaring that China’s air force could stop Pelosi’s plane in mid-flight and force it to turn around. And if American warplanes attempt to escort her plane, that would be considered an “invasion” and the door would be open to shooting the Speaker’s plane down. I suppose it doesn’t get much more blunt than that. (Business Insider)

A leading propagandist for the Chinese government warned that China’s military could attack the plane carrying House Speaker Nancy Pelosi if it’s escorted by US fighter planes on a much-speculated stopover in Taiwan in her upcoming visit to Asia.

Pelosi departed on Friday for a tour that could include a controversial stop in Taiwan, the self-governed island democracy at the heart of rising tensions between Beijing and Washington.

In a now-banned tweet, Hu Xijin, a commentator with the Chinese-state-owned Global Times, wrote, “If US fighter jets escort Pelosi’s plane into Taiwan, it is [an] invasion. The [People’s Liberation Army] has the right to forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane and the US fighter jets, including firing warning shots and making tactical movement of obstruction.”

Xijin’s comment about shooting the plane down actually came in a follow-up to the portion quoted above. He said that taking down Pelosi’s plane could be an option if attempts to turn the plane around were “ineffective.” It’s worth noting that this was not an official policy statement by the Chinese Communist Party since it came out via state media. But little or nothing ever shows up in the Global Times that wasn’t pre-approved in Beijing.

This situation is coming to a head quickly and there seem to be two camps forming up among the American commentariat. One group urges caution, saying that “provoking” China into a military confrontation with us (not to mention the possibility of the Speaker of the House being killed) while we’re in the middle of a proxy war with Russia would be foolhardy. And it’s a war we would be fighting on China’s doorstep, far from any friendly bases of operation.

The counterpoint to that idea says that if Pelosi backs down now, the United States will look weak under Joe Biden’s leadership. That could embolden China to move forward with a military incursion across the Taiwan Strait, confident that the United States would stick to the One China policy and not put our military muscle where our mouth is. It could also serve as a signal to other countries in the region that America will not have their backs, making them more susceptible to falling into the CCP’s orbit.

Both arguments are compelling in their own way. It largely depends on how serious we believe the Chinese when they make threats like this. Traditionally, these sorts of threats have been nothing but bluster and the Chinese never follow through on them. Unfortunately, that assumption will remain true until the day that it doesn’t. And if that day is marked by Nancy Pelosi’s plane crashing into the ocean in flames, Joe Biden will be put in a position where he will have to respond or we can kiss our role as a global superpower goodbye. Would China really do it? This is yet another scenario that, until quite recently, would have been unthinkable. But as we’ve noted here previously, there are a lot of unthinkable things happening these days.

Might there be a compromise option on the table? What if Pelosi decided to scrap any plans for a stop in Taiwan from this trip? China would declare a moral victory and begin to return to its normal defensive posture. But Pelosi could then take off on an unannounced and unscheduled trip allegedly heading somewhere else, like Australia, and simply “show up” in Taiwan as other delegations have done in the past. Once she’s on the ground, it would be too late to “stop” the plane and China would have no justification for shooting it down when it’s departing and heading out of their territorial airspace. Then again, I’m not sure if that’s really all that much better than simply not going at all.