Yesterday, Ed looked at the proposed prisoner swap that would bring both Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan home if we gave up Viktor Bout, the “merchant of death.” The deal was put on the table at least a couple of weeks ago, but Russia has thus far declined to comment on it. So does that mean the deal is dead? Probably not. The Russians are no doubt aware of the public pressure on Biden to get the Black, LGBT basketball star home safely and they’re hoping that we’ll toss in some additional goodies before they agree to anything, but this moment also presents opportunities for the Kremlin that they will be hard-pressed to pass by. For the moment, however, nothing else solid is being offered by either side. (Associated Press)

Blinken did not offer details on the proposed deal, which was offered weeks ago, though it is unclear if it will be enough for Russia to release the Americans. But the public acknowledgment of the offer at a time when the U.S. has otherwise shunned Russia, reflects the mounting pressure on the administration over Griner and Whelan and its determination to get them home.

Blinken said Washington would like a response from Moscow. Russia has for years expressed interest in the release of Viktor Bout, a Russian arms dealer once labeled the “Merchant of Death” who was sentenced to 25 years in prison in 2012 on charges that he schemed to illegally sell millions of dollars in weapons.

Blinken said he had requested a call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. U.S. officials said the the desire for an answer on the prisoner offer was the primary, but not only, reason that the U.S. on Wednesday requested the call with Lavrov.

As we know well by now, Sergey Lavrov loves a good moment in the spotlight and the opportunity to spout inflammatory rhetoric. But he also has to answer to his boss in the Kremlin, so he probably won’t get too crazy on a call with Blinken. Of course, this American administration has already established a reputation for being highly secretive and not letting the public in on things that are going on behind the scenes, so if Blinken sweetens the deal, we likely won’t find out about it until well after the fact.

Making this happen will carry a lot of consequences that go far beyond the freedom of one basketball player and a Canadian corporate security director. A number of other countries are watching this situation closely. A deal like this could send a signal to European nations that it’s “okay to do business with Russia again”, particularly on energy. If it’s suddenly acceptable for America to start making deals with Putin and giving Russia something it wants, the door may be open to restarting Russian oil and gas shipments to European nations that are at risk of having the lights go out this winter. Russia would also no doubt claim this as a signal from the west that it’s acceptable for them to take over parts of Ukraine, providing they don’t swallow the entire country.

In addition to that, the value of Viktor Bout to the Kremlin is far greater than just a victory in getting back one of their people. Fox News explains why Bout would be a major asset for Russia once he’s back home.

Russian officials see Bout as a “high-value asset” and are likely pushing hard for the exchange, according to former Defense Intelligence Agency officer Rebekah Koffler.

“Moscow wants him back because he possesses critical insights that he can share with the GRU, his former agency. Having been in a U.S. prison and interrogated by U.S. officials, he knows what our intelligence requirements are and other information that is valuable for the Russians,” Koffler, the author of “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America,” told Fox News Digital.

“It would be a big mistake for the U.S. to give up Viktor Bout, as much as one feels compassion for Ms. Griner and Mr. Whelan.”

If he’s returned to Russia, Bout would no doubt be in for a long session of grilling by Kremlin intelligence officials and spies. During his time in American activity, Bout would have been questioned at great length by our own intelligence agencies. Whether he gave up anything of value or not is unknown, but he would have learned quite a bit from the questions that we asked him. These types of cat and mouse games happen all the time in the spying business, but it would be an opportunity that Russia would likely welcome.

None of this serves as a guarantee that the deal won’t still fall apart. It definitely could. But there is plenty of motivation on both sides to make it happen, so don’t be surprised if Blinken’s anticipated call with Lavrov results in some sort of announcement that involves Ms. Griner coming home. And that would wind up being a feather in Joe Biden’s cap at a moment when he desperately needs some sort of “win” to point to.