In a matter of hours, the Democrats in the House of Representatives will almost certainly vote to impeach President Donald Trump. Everyone had already pretty much seen this coming, but once the deed is done we will begin to learn how the country will react to it. Karen posted earlier about Trump’s uptick in approval ratings, along with a corresponding dip in support for impeachment and removal nationally.
But we don’t elect presidents nationally based on the popular vote. Nor is voter enthusiasm homogeneous across the various House districts in each state. Politicos across the country will be watching how the swing districts react. And today we received the results of a new survey covering districts that Trump carried in 2016 but are currently held by Democrats. As it turns out, support for impeachment in these key areas is taking a beating. (The Hill)
A new survey conducted by President Trump’s campaign pollsters finds impeachment is unpopular in districts carried by Trump in 2016 where Democratic lawmakers are seeking reelection.
The poll, conducted by Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis, surveyed 30 voters in 30 swing districts that voted for Trump in 2016 but elected Democratic House members in 2018.
The Trump campaign did not poll New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District, where Rep. Jefferson Van Drew (D) is expected to switch parties and become a Republican.
We should keep in mind that this is an internal poll commissioned by the Trump campaign, so factor that into your consideration. But no matter how you slice it, these numbers aren’t looking good for the Democrats.
Averaging out all of these districts, voters opposed impeachment by a margin of 53 percent to 43 percent. You can call that “divided” if you like, but it’s really not that close. A ten-point spread could certainly change over the next eleven months, but now that we’ve arrived at the moment of actual impeachment, it doesn’t seem popular.
Looking deeper into the numbers, it doesn’t get any better. When asked how they would feel if their representative voted for impeachment, 39 percent said they would be less likely to vote for the Democrat. 29 percent said it would make them more likely to do so.
This survey supports a number of others that have indicated a curious trend. You can still find a majority of voters who support investigating the President’s dealings with Ukraine. You can even find similar numbers who are willing to support a vote on impeachment. But when you add in the phrase “and removal,” supporters fall into the minority. That will be a puzzle for us to chew on for years to come.
Assuming these numbers are anywhere close to reality, the implications run deeper than just the President’s chances of reelection next year. Yes, he wants to carry the swing districts and swing states to get to a majority in the electoral college. But the new Democrats in Trump country who vote for impeachment could find themselves on the hot seat next November.
If the Democrats have overplayed their hand as badly as some are beginning to suspect, they might not only be stuck with Trump for four more years, but they could conceivably give back control of the House as well. And wouldn’t that just be a darned shame?
