California gas prices could rise up to $1.15 per gallon next year thanks to the state’s new carbon credit system, taxes, refinery regulations, and refinery shutdown. This would require the typical Californian to make up to $1,000 per year more in pre-tax income to “break even,” according to an analysis from a professor at the USC Marshall School of Business. 

“The increase contributes to inflation, the high cost of living in California, and has a disproportionate and adverse impact on lower income Californians," wrote Professor Michael A. Mische. “To compensate for the increases, the average Californian driving an internal combustion vehicle will have to earn an additional $600.00 to $1,000.00 a year in pre-tax income in order to “breakeven” with 2024 prices, depending on the grade of gas they purchase.”

Days after the November election, the California Air Resources Board — a regulatory commission almost entirely appointed by the governor — passed new updates to the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, requiring producers of “dirty” transportation fuel to purchase more credits from producers of “clean” transportation fuel. The new LCFS will provide an estimated $105 billion in EV charging credits and $8 billion of hydrogen credits largely paid for by fees on gasoline and diesel, which the state estimated would be passed on to drivers and consumers. 

Mische first estimated  that the state’s newly passed carbon credit requirement will increase retail prices for regular grade gasoline in 2025 somewhere between 40 and 65 cents per gallon — similar to that estimated by the University of Pennsylvania Kleinman Center for Energy Policy.