Being that I live on the West Coast, I was not quite as bleary-eyed as political junkies in the East as the six registered voters in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire held to their Midnight tradition of being the first in the nation to cast same-day ballots. 

It's the quadrennial equivalent of Groundhog Day, but it does mark the official dropping of the green flag for whatever is to come our way by the time polls close tonight.

To give you a little history of the tiny community of Dixville Notch, in 2016, the six registered residents voted 4-2 in favor of Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Clinton would go on to eke out a statewide 0.4% victory. In 2020, Joe Biden shut out Donald Trump for the five votes available in that cycle, before going on to win the Granite State by 7.4%. 

At the stroke of Midnight, all six current residents of Dixville Notch filed into the Ballot Room to hear the obligatory rendition of the National Anthem on accordian. 

The first election result is in, and it's a Trump-Harris tie. Polls in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, opened at midnight and closed shortly after the town's six residents cast their ballots.

Follow live election updates: https://t.co/54b0Mopd58 pic.twitter.com/PE7YuCyauI

— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 5, 2024

One of the six residents, a woman, refused to put her hand over her heart. Immediately, the online gawkers began to comment amongst themselves, and all of X, that clearly, she was voting for Kamala Harris. But one by one, they went behind the curtain, and one by one, they filed out and put their ballot in the big wooden box. 

A few moments later, the box was opened, and it took three people to count the six ballots - one to unfold it and orient it right-side up, hand it to the official reader, and then the official stenographer would tally the reader's call on the recap sheet. The final tally was actually quite interesting. The topline for president was split - 3 for Trump, 3 for Harris. But the second line was for the governor's race. Former New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte took five of the six votes, boding very well that the Granite State will be governed by common sense for the next four years when the rest of the state finishes counting. 

Back to the presidential line. The fact that Donald Trump improved his position by 50% over four years ago, and Kamala Harris underperforming Joe Biden by 50% four years ago is anecdotal, of course, but right in line with the vast amount of data we're seeing from all over the country after days and weeks of early voting. More on that in a bit. 

In 2020, about 790,000 votes were cast for president. New Hampshire is a small state, and the polls close early - 7pm eastern. Polling, especially this past week, is literally all over the map. The Real Clear Politics average is Harris +3.5%, at the outer edge of margin of error. Rasmussen only has Harris up 1. The New Hampshire Journal last week actually had Trump up 0.4%. The laugh out loud outlier was turned in by Dartmouth, believing Kamala Harris will win New Hampshire by 28 (62-34). Here's the deal. Hillary Clinton barely won Dixville Notch and won the state in a squeaker. Biden swept Dixville Notch and cruised to victory later that night. Trump tied Kamala Harris in Dixville Notch. It's pretty safe to assume that Dartmouth is about as off as that Iowa Selzer poll. It also lends credence to my theory that New Hampshire will be the first canary in the coal mine to watch tonight. 

If 7pm rolls around and New Hampshire is too close to call, it's going to be a very good night for Donald Trump. It just is. Before mid-October, every single poll out of New Hampshire was showing Harris 8, 9, 11 points up. Biden carried the state four years ago by over 7. New Hampshire was not supposed to be in play. Democrats and their regime media allies cannot fathom what the Granite State potentially falling means is in store for them for the next four years. Watch New Hampshire tonight. 

And another piece of input that won't be reported in media is the fact that the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire endorsed Donald Trump yesterday. This is a big, big deal. New Hampshire is famous for their independence. 44% of the state are registered Democrats, 35% are Republicans, and a full 20% of the electorate are independents. Libertarians are included in that 20%. Here's their endorsement letter.

BREAKING: Libertarian Party of New Hampshire endorses Donald Trump for president. pic.twitter.com/B3tBrF3QBO

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024

Libertarians in New Hampshire don't like Donald Trump at all. But they recognize that despite their personal animus, Trump would align more closely with Granite State libertarians, and they really, really don't trust or like Kamala Harris. The fact that libertarians on the eve of same-day voting in New Hampshire are throwing their weight behind the former president is pretty significant. If the polling really is Harris +3, that polling does not factor in indies, including libertarians, shifting late to Trump. 

Now a word about early voting and which side is overperforming, and which side is underperforming. Van Jones, a hard lefty who is a partisan's partisan, nevertheless is one of the more transparent Democrats you'll see on television. He does not have a good poker face at all. He'll tell you what he's thinking and feeling, and joyful vibes were not part of the package last night on CNN.

VAN JONES: I am "nervous and worried" about Harris' chances in Pennsylvania.

"Philadelphia is where we’ve gotta run up a big margin, but Philly overall has been trending down."pic.twitter.com/tquyfAakRf

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024

The banking of votes Democrats enjoyed as recently as 2020 is just not there from their stronghold of Philadelphia. In 2020, Joe Biden carried a 1.1 million vote advantage into Election day. That margin was enough to weather the same-day storm of Republican voters. But of that 1.1 million, the final margin in the Keystone State was a smidge over 80,000. As of last night, Kamala Harris had a bank of votes going into Election Day...of 412,000 votes. In a state decided four years ago by 80,000, she's banking 750,000 fewer votes. For her to win, she has to have a combination of unlikely scenarios play out. 1) Same-day turnout in Philly has to be off-the-charts heavy. As Van Jones signaled, it's a heavy lift to put faith in that theory when Philly voters have already shown they're not turning out in big numbers in early voting, which is what the Democratic Party trained them to do for a decade. 2) In 2020, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by over 600,000. As of two weeks ago, Republicans have cut that deficit by a little over half. For Harris to win, you have to hold onto the belief that a significant chunk of these new Republicans, over 300,000 of them, after having gone through the effort to register as Republicans, are now going to crossover and vote for Kamala Harris. It's just a hard case to sell. 3) Indies and women have to show up on Election Day and swamp the electorate for Harris. Here's the problem with that theory. 

On Election Day, 2020, Republicans, with their 600,000+ party ID disadvantage to Democrats, won same day voting by 66%-34%. The raw vote edge on Election Day by Republicans over Democrats was a net 1.32 million votes. The only reason Joe Biden won Pennsylvania was the banked early vote. Kamala Harris is now walking into a climate where she's got 750,000 fewer votes she can count on, her stronghold of Philly has shown signs of faltering for weeks, and there are 300,000 more Republicans out there than there were four years ago. It's a lot to overcome. 

The left will try to make the case that Republicans have cannibalized their same-day voters, banking them more than historically normal. The problem with that is that those brand-new 300,000 Republicans, the ones that have just recently registered as Republicans, are largely the ones that are voting early. They are by definition low propensity voters, because they haven't voted Republican before this cycle. The traditional Republicans in Pennsylvania that have always been there are still out there and available today. It's the Democrats that have probably poached same-day voters. We hear a lot about the gender gap, and that it's going to be women that save the day for Kamala Harris. Those women that are hyper-motivated to vote on the abortion issue are also most likely to vote early or vote by mail. Most of them are already in Harris' bank of votes. The available pool of Democratic same-day voters may not actually be that large when all is said and done. They certainly don't appear to be highly-motivated. 

All the caveats apply - The Republican base has to turn out. Exit polls have to be totally ignored. But if Republicans turn out this time exactly like they did in 2020, when all the wind was in the sails of Joe Biden, Donald Trump will win Pennsylvania, and it really won't be that close. Patrick Ruffini's Echelon final poll had Trump up 6. I don't think he's going to turn out to be that far off. The energy for Donald Trump is a lot higher than it was four years ago, which means using the same-day turnout model from 2020, which heavily favors Republicans, may actually be too low. 

Michael Pruser of Decision Desk has the analysis for both Nevada and Arizona after early voting. And while he hasn't gone full Dave Wasserman, saying I've seen enough, once you see his analysis, it's hard to conclude that Kamala Harris is going to win either of those Sun Belt states.

Arizona Early Voting Update - FINAL

Going into election day tomorrow, we have our final numbers in Arizona.

🔴Republicans - 954,306
🔵Democrats - 758,342
🟡Others - 625,731

Like Nevada, Arizona has remained consistently Republican from the start. Unlike Nevada, this trend will… pic.twitter.com/F2Se5hyYqr

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) November 5, 2024

Nevada Early Voting Update - FINAL

Nevada just posted its final evening SoS report (there will be one tomorrow with a very small additional amount of mail) and our "go into election day" numbers are:

🔴Republicans - 410,179
🔵Democrats - 367,941
🟡Others - 310,972

Over the… pic.twitter.com/lgSaWFmGmR

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) November 5, 2024

Kamala Harris has all but pulled up stakes in North Carolina, which leaves her Georgia as the Sun Belt State Biden won that she's at least trying to retain. The ominous sign out of local media in Atlanta is that state officials are hinting it could be an early call. 

JUST IN: Georgia elections official expects results much earlier this year, with a good picture of where the race is at by 8PM ET - WSBTV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024

Why? Black turnout is way off of where it was four years ago. If same-day voting mirrors the same ratio as early vote has for weeks, Georgia will be a quick call.

Donald Trump and J.D. Vance closed out Campaign '24 by holding four swing state rallies each. Kamala Harris' final two stops featured speeches of a little over 7 minutes and a smidge over 8 minutes. The energy level could not be more different between the two camps. 

Trump's final rally in Grand Rapids after Midnight. 

This place is rockin’!!! 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/yxsgez5UGn

— Jason Miller (@JasonMillerinDC) November 5, 2024

Versus Kamala Harris' final Pennsylvania rally. 

Evidence of a Harris surge tomorrow: https://t.co/rH1iUkELDt

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024

Joe Rogan, the largest podcaster in the world with 200 million downloads a month globally, just endorsed Donald Trump yesterday. Megyn Kelly, with 116.8 million views in July alone, just endorsed Donald Trump. 

All of this may be a mirage. It might be a razor thin victory for Kamala Harris, in spite of all the data. I'd be lying to you if I didn't tell you that just objectively looking at all the data, I'm just not seeing it. 

In 2012, we on the right put all our Mitt Romney optimism on internal polling. We didn't have swing states with 300,000 new registered Republicans. We didn't have other swing states with Republicans outright leading the early vote for the first time ever. We didn't see regime media and the Democrats acting like all was lost. We had internal polling and mistaken confidence that anger at Obamacare would be enough to defeat Barack Obama. We were woefully wrong.

Yes, election PTSD has lingering effects on a lot of conservative pundits. I'm immune to it. I just look at the data. And the data tells me Donald Trump is going to be the next president of the United States...if all of you reading this do your part and go vote.