As with all of the other candidates we feature here, this column will not give fear or favor at all, but merely sum up the plusses and minuses so that when the debates come around, you have something to look for on the stage, whether it be the candidate upselling his strengths, or others pointing out the weaknesses.

The case for Tim Scott

1. Memoirs have always been a powerful starting point in political campaigns, because they allow the candidate to explain what makes them tick, share their life experiences so that they are relatable to potential voters, and humanize the person at the center of the campaign, especially in an era where media tends to turn campaigns into machines. In America: A Redemption Story, Tim Scott’s story may be the greatest personal testament to the power of the promise and potential of the American experiment we’ve seen from a presidential candidate. And Scott is very good at telling this story. Expect him to do bio wherever and whenever he can in the early stages of the campaign, because his bio is the stuff from which movies could be made.
2. Charisma a-plenty – Tim Scott may be about the most likable guy on the stage. He exudes charm and grace, and in the retail area of politics, shaking hands with people and talking issues with them, there will be few people who do it better.
3. The late Steve Jobs used to say about his management style that A’s hire A’s, while B’s tend to hire C’s. Considering the level of people Scott is surrounding himself with in the run up to launching a campaign, most recently former Colorado Senator Cory Gardner and longtime National Republican Senatorial Campaign operative Rob Collins, he is picking among the best people possible to raise money and support for a national campaign. It is also a sign that if he were to become president, the people he’d surround himself with and seek counsel would be serious people.
4. Scott is a hawk on foreign policy, having supported continued action in Afghanistan, viewing Iran as among the most dangerous countries in the world, and co-sponsoring legislation in the Senate to keep China from buying up property in the United States. He is a social conservative as well. He’s very pro-life, and looks at social politics through a Christian worldview. And he’s an economic conservative as well, going back to his days as a South Carolina state representative supporting right-to-work laws, to his time in the House of Representatives where he co-sponsored bills on welfare reform, to his time in the Senate as a proponent of tax cuts, a balanced budget amendment, and overturning Obamacare.
5. He was the primary co-sponsor on the Republican side for the Justice Act on race and police reform. It was a serious piece of legislation, with lots of buy-in from Democratic colleagues, and showed an ability to work with the other side and compromise on issues that could have a real impact on an issue that ranks right at the top of concerns voters have each political cycle.

The case against Tim Scott

1. Scott was appointed to the Senate by former Governor Nikki Haley after Jim DeMint left the Senate. Now that Haley is in the race for president herself, that relationship dynamic between them will be interesting to see handled by Scott without looking like he’s disloyal and unappreciative for being in the Senate in the first place.
2. Scott has legislative experience a mile long. What he lacks is executive experience. He does have an insurance agency and is a partner in a real estate group in the private sector, but outside of those two companies, his ability to demonstrate how he’d be able to run a massive bureaucracy like the federal government is pretty thin. Governors getting into the race, whether Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, Greg Abbott, Chris Sununu, Larry Hogan, or even wild cards like Brian Kemp or Kristi Noem, all will point out what a tremendously nice guy he is and a terrific senator, but he just hasn’t run anything of size, and the times are too perilous to trust the government this messed up to a novice.
3. Can he close the deal? His crime bill was very much a force to be reckoned with in the Senate. It had lots of support amongst both Republicans and Democrats. It was expected to pass when it was working its way through the committee process and floor debate in 2020. It needed to clear a 60-vote cloture hurdle, but only could muster 55. So why did it fail? Timing. It took place during Donald Trump’s final year in office, a year in which he was running for reelection and largely supported it. Democrats at the end of the day, even though supporting the measure privately, could not be perceived as voting for something that would in essence give Trump a win. Scott’s pretty persuasive on a lot of topics. But questions of whether he can actually deliver on something will be raised.
   On that crime bill, and the First Step Act before it in 2018, Scott took a decidedly more moderate position than the doctrinaire one on punishing criminals. His position on race relations is, for obvious reasons, a little more nuanced than those further to the right within the Republican Party. He has a case to make to be the leader of the Republican Party that can reach out to minorities and expand the voting base. But he’ll have to not lose Republican voters already in the fold by caving to the social justice crowd.
4. Donald Trump’s entry so early into the process was meant to ice out a lot of other would-be contenders, making them reconsider whether they wanted to go through with this process and run against an unstoppable Trump juggernaut. Virtually all of the other people mentioned as candidates said Trump’s entry wouldn’t affect their decision in any way. Nikki Haley is the first to follow through on that and get in. When and if Tim Scott gets in, that will probably signal that the rest of the field doesn’t see Trump as strong as originally thought and vulnerable to be picked off in a primary. If Scott gets in, we’ll see how he handles the jabs from the former president. He’s tended not to get into the gutter with anyone, and for good reason. He won his Senate elections by huge margins. He’s well-loved in a very conservative state, and didn’t need to make any enemies. Getting traction in a crowded Republican presidential field will be completely different. It’s unclear how hard he’ll fight and how personal he’ll get with his fellow candidates.

We’ll see who else jumps in as time goes on. My guess is this won’t be the last column of its type, especially with people like Kristi Noem and Greg Abbott out there lurking. Stay tuned.