Cotton began his appearances on the Hugh Hewitt Show back in 2012 when he was campaigning for an Arkansas Congressional seat. He won it fairly easily, and when 2014 saw a very weak incumbent Mark Pryor standing for reelection in the Senate in a favorable environment for Republicans, especially in a state that was deepening its shade of red, Cotton ran against him and won. He joined eight other freshmen Republicans who won seats in that red wave year. Throughout his political career, Cotton has been a weekly guest on Hugh’s show, and he and I have goofed on each other, both on air and off, for a decade. He and I share a very dry and acerbic sense of humor.

But for the purposes of this column, I will put my blinders on and analyze to the best of my ability the reasons to support him as well as the problems a Cotton presidential campaign will need to tackle.

The case for Tom Cotton

1. Conservative bona fides – In a Republican primary, one of the chief metrics is how conservative you are. By any objective measure, whether it’s on domestic policy, including spending, immigration, crime, education, national security, or foreign policy, there simply is no one else in the United States Senate who has a more demonstrable, consistently conservative voting record. Even on continuing resolutions that pass the Senate in bipartisan fashion, Cotton, if there is too much pork, will cast a no vote. He truly votes his conscious and convictions, and while there are many senators who are also very conservative in the upper chamber, there are none who can claim they are more conservative.

2. Team player – Even though he is mavericky and will vote his conservative principles regardless of whether or not it’s politically expedient for the party as a whole, Cotton has shown repeatedly, including very much this midterm campaign cycle, that he will travel and stump for Republicans all across the country. Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Rick Scott and others have certainly done their share, but none have logged the miles to support this year’s would-be GOP Senatorial crop that Cotton has. He’s literally the embodiment of the Johnny Cash song – I’ve Been Everywhere. That ability to doggedly campaign will be very necessary in a GOP primary, and especially in a general campaign. He cannot be called a lazy campaigner.

3. Judges – A Harvard Law grad serving on the Senate Judiciary Committee, Cotton fully understands the importance of Mitch McConnell’s Judiciary reformation project, and will be a trusted asset if elected to continue to fill the Appellate Court ranks, as well as any future Supreme Court opening, with a solid strict constructionist.

4. Miliary experience – Ranger qualified, serving in the 101st Airborne as well as the Old Guard at Arlington Cemetery, Cotton has the unique perspective of serving both at the tip of the spear of American foreign policy, but also dealing with the repercussions of that policy when the remains of our fallen warriors return home. At 45 years old, he has forgotten more about real world foreign policy already than Joe Biden will even claim to have known.

5. New book – as is the practice of potential future candidates for as long as there have been campaigns, Cotton has just released a foreign policy book entitled Only The Strong. It’s a historical takedown of what the Democratic Party has done to weaken the military and American influence on the world stage for the past century. It’s a powerful case for the need to return to American exceptionalism.

The case against Tom Cotton

1. Inexperience – Probably the biggest charge against Cotton in a GOP primary will come from governors in the race, and potentially a former president or vice president, that while he’s got lots of future and promise, he hasn’t run anything at the national level, and the country is at a time when we don’t have time for someone to go through a learning curve. He’d make a fine Defense secretary or national security advisor, maybe on the ticket as a VP, they’ll say, but he’s just not ready, yet.

2. Age – Even though it’s related to critique number 1, at the age of 45, his age will come up as a factor. He’s got lots of promise, but there are plenty of other contenders in this cycle who are a little more seasoned, and Cotton has plenty of time to wait his turn.

3. Red state power, blue state sour – Cotton’s last election bid was in 2020. And it was an absolute cakewalk. No Democrat qualified for the ballot by the filing deadline, and one libertarian who did had to pull his nomination after also failing to qualify. Cotton ran virtually unopposed. In a general election, Cotton would win every red state fairly handily. The real question is whether Cotton can pull off wins in places like Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona. He’s very, very conservative. That’s great in red states. It remains a huge question mark if he can resonate and charm blue and purple state independents and moderates.

4. He’s too Trumpy – Never Trumpers will never go along with Cotton, because Cotton viewed, like most rational people did at the time, the impeachment attempt by Democrats of Donald Trump as a circus. Never Trumper, Inc. will never forgive him for it, nor vote for him.

5. Stolen valor – this is an old charge, and has been answered before, but it’s a nit someone in the GOP will pick. Cotton graduated from Army Ranger school and was deployed with his Ranger tab. He did not serve, however, with the 75th Ranger regiment. Critics say he claimed he was a Ranger without serving with the Rangers. Cotton has claimed he is Ranger certified, which he is. It’s a nagging issue, and one that Cotton will have to revisit again.

Still a lot of potential GOP contenders that have shown interest in jumping into the fray for the 2024 presidential cycle, including former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, Florida Governor Rick Scott, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and former Vice President Mike Pence. Stay tuned in the weeks ahead in order to complete your GOP primary scorebook.