The case for Ted Cruz:

1. Recent history favors him to be the nominee because Cruz finished second in 2020. With a few notable exceptions, going all the way back to 1976, whomever finished number two in delegates in the GOP primary process ended up becoming the nominee the next time there was an open field for the Republicans. In 1976, Ronald Reagan finished second to Gerald Ford, and became the nominee in 1980. Finishing second that year was George H.W. Bush, who became the nominee in 1988. In 2000, John McCain finished second to George W. Bush, and became the nominee in 2008. Finishing second that year was Mitt Romney, who became the nominee in 2012. Ted Cruz finished second to Donald Trump in 2016, so if past is prologue, the “It’s His Turn” theory applies.

2. Constitutional knowledge and background – Being one of only a handful of people who have argued cases in front of the United States Supreme Court 9 times, winning all 9, Cruz has an exceptional grasp on the separation of powers and what the roles of each branch of government is, and what they should be. Reformers would have an ally in Cruz to try to restore balance to the federal government and reel in out-of-control federal agencies.

3. Debating skills – Few people can match Cruz’ ability on the issues in a direct debate. He is well above average in intellect, and in a one-on-one debate setting with virtually any Democrat nominee in 2024, should be able to wipe the floor on substance and performance.

4. Judicial picks – Donald Trump set the gold standard for nominating and getting approved three outstanding Supreme Court justices and over 200 Appellate Court justices. He relied largely on outside recommendations from the Federalist Society’s Leonard Leo. Cruz could and probably would consult with the FedSoc, but also has the luxury of intimate knowledge of the current and future crop of potential conservative legal superstars as a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and would be reliable to make good choices if and when crucial vacancies occur.

5. Southern border – Being a senator from the border state of Texas, few senators have been more outspoken in defense of the need for finishing the wall and stopping the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs. Interior national security, beginning with the southern border, would be a top priority for a potential Cruz administration.

6. Passion a-plenty – Cruz is staunchly pro-life, very much for limited government, is a fierce critic of China, is a huge proponent of energy independence here, is a huge ally of parents on educational issues, especially after the exposure of leftist curricula in the wake of the pandemic. Cruz trues up on the issues that most conservative voters care about, and he’s very, very good at articulating that position.

The case against Ted Cruz

1. Perceptions overwhelm reality – One of the biggest raps on Cruz is that he’s reptilian – disingenuous, a phony, a huckster. He is one of a few Republican senators who got caught up in the post-election nonsense of 2020, playing footsies with the stolen election crowd, and objected to the certification of Joe Biden’s victory. Once the riot happened at the Capitol on January 6, he had to begin the process of extricating himself from the mess. To the MAGA crowd, he’s not a reliable ally. To Never Trumpers, he’s an opportunist. In short, lots of conservatives in a future primary season are going to have to be convinced that he really means what he says and can be trusted.

2. Showboating – There’s good Ted Cruz and bad Ted Cruz. The good Ted Cruz is when he’s on a committee hearing with all the receipts and a nominee or witness stuck in the chair under oath. He can be devastating. The bad Ted Cruz is when he’s on stage at a rally or conference like CPAC. He almost always turns the occasion into a standup routine, and it often times produces a cringeworthy result. Ted Cruz is whip smart. The problem with that is he knows it.

3. Lack of governing experience – He’s been a senator for a couple terms now, and has a better than average understanding of how everything in government should work from a Constitutional standpoint. But like every other senator in the GOP field vying for the presidency, Cruz has never really run anything. Count on that point being made on a debate stage by either a former president or governors in the field.

4. Gaffes – While no GOP candidate will be perfect on this subject, especially with a leftist media putting every word/action of a potential Republican contender under a microscope, when Cruz makes a gaffe, it’s a doozy. When a brutal winter storm wreaked havoc across much of Texas, causing a large chunk of it to lose power for an extended period of time, Senator Ted Cruz and his wife, Heidi, and their two daughters, left their freezing house for an impromptu Cancun, Mexico vacation. After a day of withering attacks online and on cable nets, Cruz hastily returned. His response to the firestorm was feeble at best. He was just being a good dad, he said. He didn’t think through the optics. I am all about putting family first, but this episode exposed a rap on Cruz to be exploited – that Heidi wears the pants in the family. She decided to get the hell out of Texas during the storm, and regardless of the political consequences to Cruz, they went to Mexico. He’ll have to do a much better job of nuancing how in control he would be as president.

5. Cruz on the issues is a conservative’s conservative. Whether it’s social issues, economics, guns, immigration, national security, Cruz votes the right way with the vast majority of the Republican base. He’s a solid, solid conservative. As divided as this country is right now, it remains to be seen how Cruz would be able to win the presidency just with conservative voters, however. There’s no evidence out there to suggest he’d be able to win over virtually any Democratic voters or independents. He might, but winning in Texas statewide versus picking up a swing state like Virginia, Arizona, Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan are two completely different propositions. It remains very questionable whether Cruz could pass the old Bill Buckley rule – vote for the most conservative candidate who can actually win. Cruz could win the nomination, but a general election? That’s a huge question mark.

6. He doesn’t play well with others – In 2013, there was a government shutdown over whether or not funding of Obamacare would be included in the continuing resolutions being tossed around the House and Senate. The House, largely because of intense media pressure applied by newly minted Senator Ted Cruz, walked the plank and the government shut down for 16 days. It was disastrous for Republicans as Barack Obama, with full aid and assist from mainstream media, hammered the Republicans for it. It became untenable for House Republicans to hold the line, and they eventually caved and signed onto a CR. Cruz, meanwhile, having walked the Congressional Republicans into an unnecessary box canyon, shrugged it off and left them hanging out to dry. That didn’t set well. Congressional Republicans have long, long memories. They haven’t forgotten that, and it’ll be questionable how good of a relationship a President Cruz would have with Congress, even in his own party.

Your comments are welcome. I’ve loved what you’ve had to say about previous columns on Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump. I’ll keep this series alive as there are still at least 5 or 6 more Republicans that will make a serious effort to compete for the nomination, regardless of whether or not Donald Trump gets in. Stay tuned.