So much for the warm embrace of Moscow. After a couple of weeks of sweeter talk toward Russia, as a means to get a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine, Trump has changed his rhetorical tone sharply this morning. In response to a massive air offensive launched by Vladimir Putin against the Ukrainians, Trump sent out a brief warning on Truth Social to back off -- or else:

Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely “pounding” Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED. To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!

Putin likely thought the time was ripe for a new offensive to change the conditions on the ground after the rupture last week in the Oval Office. The following days would have been even more encouraging for Russia, as angry sniping in public took place between Ukraine and the US, with Volodymyr Zelensky conducting a PR campaign in Europe to pressure Trump into maintaining the status quo. Those kinds of public breakdowns between allies usually offer opportunities in warfare, which is why it's so important to avoid them. 

That's water under the bridge now, but clearly Trump has hit his limit with Russia on this point. He wants to end the war and build better relations with Moscow in order to isolate China, a reverse of Richard Nixon's strategy in using China as a counterweight to the Soviet Union. Trump wants to partner with Russia to solve the Iran nuclear issue too, which Putin seems amenable to coordinating for his own purposes. (I have more on that in a later post.) The way to peel Russia from China -- if it's at all possible -- is to normalize Russia in the West and offer better economic outcomes than Beijing can provide. And that means schmoozing to some extent, although the amount is certainly open to criticism. 

Today, however, Trump is making clear that he has a limit to that, and the limit is Ukraine's survival. If the Oval Office contretemps incentivized these attacks, Trump is making it clear that he's ready to apply some significant disincentives if they continue. Putin has to know that this will be a popular position for Trump at home, where support for Ukraine far exceeds that of Russia in this conflict, and where Putin is objectively seen as the aggressor and cause of the war. Trump took considerable political risk in offering olive branches to Putin over the last few weeks, and can't be too pleased to have Putin rub his face in it now, too.

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky followed up by calling for a truce in the air and sea:

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky called for a truce in the air and at sea, as well as additional pressure on Russia, after a massive attack overnight that hit Ukrainian gas infrastructure.

"The first steps to establishing real peace should be forcing the sole source of this war, Russia, to stop such attacks," Zelensky said on the Telegram app.

Zelensky also plans to travel to Saudi Arabia to meet with Mohammed bin Salman. He also announced that his team would work with Americans there to hammer out a potential deal that will lead to a cease-fire:

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine will hold peace talks with the United States next week, as he vowed to work "constructively" with Donald Trump. In his nightly address, the Ukrainian leader revealed that he will travel to Saudi Arabia on Monday, while his team remains there to negotiate with U.S. officials.

Zelensky reaffirmed Ukraine's determination to achieve a "fast" and "lasting" peace agreement, following his heated exchange with Trump at the White House last week. "Next Monday, I have a visit planned to Saudi Arabia for a meeting with the Crown Prince. After that, my team will stay in Saudi Arabia to work with our American partners," Zelensky said.

Originally, CBS reported that Trump would also be in Saudi Arabia, but the White House debunked that claim. This will be the kind of lower-level negotiations that should have been completed before Zelensky showed up at the Oval Office the first time. Maybe everyone has learned a lesson from the past week or so. 

Update: Russia has apparently heard the message:

In the first signal of a positive response from Putin to US counterpart Trump’s call for a ceasefire, the offer was conveyed at last month’s talks in Saudi Arabia between top Russian and American officials, the people said.https://t.co/nSXe2VvknX

— annmarie hordern (@annmarie) March 7, 2025

Update: The Bloomberg story is behind the paywall. The Economic Times has it via MSN:

Russia is willing to discuss a temporary truce in Ukraine provided there is progress toward a final peace settlement, according to people familiar with the matter in Moscow.

In the first signal of a positive response from President Vladimir Putin to US counterpart Donald Trump’s call for a ceasefire, the offer was conveyed at last month’s talks in Saudi Arabia between top Russian and American officials, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing internal policy.

In order to agree to a cessation of hostilities, there would have to be a clear understanding about the framework principles of the final peace accord, two people with knowledge of the matter said. Russia will insist in particular on establishing the parameters of an eventual peacekeeping mission, including agreement on which countries would take part, said another person familiar with the issue.

In other words, this may have been a brief demonstration of Putin's "escalate to de-escalate" strategy in order to force Zelensky to deal from the disadvantage of last week's Oval Office fiasco. If so, it might have backfired with Trump. The report from Bloomberg came pretty quickly after Trump's threat to escalate sanctions, and it seems unlikely to be a coincidence. Also worth noting: Russia is apparently prepared to allow peacekeeping forces in Ukraine to guarantee compliance, at least in principle.