Is this another Godfather-esque play to make Ali Khamenei an offer he can't refuse? Is it a reversal on Barack Obama's JCPOA? Or is it a way to de-escalate with both Russia and China and dial down tensions by restoring commerce as the main medium of international relations? Or is this just spitballing to suss out the possibilities? 

Perhaps Khamenei is asking himself the same questions after receiving a letter from Donald Trump asking to negotiate an end to Iran's nuclear-weapons program:

President Trump said he sent a letter on Thursday to Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and stressed that he wants to reach a deal on the country's nuclear program.

Why it matters: Trump's letter to Khamenei, which the president revealed in an interview with Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo that will air on Sunday, is the first significant engagement between the U.S. and Iran since the new administration took office.

What he's saying: Trump reiterated in the interview that he wants to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran.

• "The other alternative is you have to do something because Iran can't have a nuclear weapon," Trump said in the interview.

There is yet another possibility, although it seems even less likely to succeed than those listed above. Trump might want to reach a deal with Iran that leaves Israel in peace and Hamas relocated to Iran. Trump wants to eject all of the Gazans from the territory and reform it into a resort enclave that leaves Israel's southern region secure from attack snd their agricultural sector in peace. 

Needless to say, the Iranians are not likely to agree to any such outcome. Their hatred of Israel is theocratic, radical, and fits within the paradigm of their extremist belief that Israel's destruction will unleash a holy war that will produce the messianic Twelfth Imam. Cutting deals with the mullahs of Iran is nearly impossible for that reason; they are pursuing a non-rational goal and will disregard rational considerations to achieve it.  

The status quo isn't acceptable either, though, as Trump told Bartiromo. Something has to change, and that means Trump wants to appeal to reason -- first. Jacqui Heinrich posted the relevant part of the transcript this morning:

Maria Bartiromo: There are reports now that Russia says it will help the United States negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran. What kind of deal with Iran do you want to do? You said they cannot have a nuclear weapon.

President Trump: There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal....

Maria Bartiromo: You wrote a letter to the Khomeni…

President Trump: Yes.Maria Bartiromo: When did you send the letter?

President Trump: Yesterday.

Maria Bartiromo: And you say, ‘you better negotiate’ or ‘we want you to negotiate.’

President Trump: I didn’t say ‘you better,’ I said I hope you're going to negotiate, because it's going to be a lot better for Iran, and I think they want to get that letter. The other alternative is we have to do something, because you can't let them have a nuclear weapon.

Trump may not have written 'you better,' but that message will get heard in Tehran nonetheless. The involvement of the Russians might mitigate that somewhat, but the Iranian regime hates the US almost as much as they hate the Israelis. And again, their ultimate aim is not to live in peace but to prevail in war to dominate at least the region and more broadly the entire world, a point that both Russia and China overlook in their own shortsightedness about the US. 

In the end, this looks like an "it can't hurt" sort of effort. It doesn't cost anything to send a letter. The Iranian regime will likely reject it anyway, or won't take negotiations seriously even with Russia acting as interlocutor. Like Hamas, they're almost certainly convinced that Trump won't escalate matters beyond rhetoric and economic sanctions that the regime already evades to the extent possible. Is that an accurate analysis? Hamas will find out first -- and then perhaps Iran might take a different approach. 

Addendum: Iran seemingly rejected the overture this morning, but don't take this as a final word:

Iran will not resume negotiations with the United States on its nuclear programme while President Donald Trump applies his "maximum pressure" policy, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has told AFP. https://t.co/XTYXZanbiG pic.twitter.com/8htaIeiV36

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 7, 2025

The regime likes to test the limits before it commits to anything. This is less a rejection than a counter-offer, at least at the moment. Stay tuned.