More Hamas Hokey Pokey, or a real deal this time?

Real deal, reports the Associated Press:

Hamas has accepted a draft agreement for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of dozens of hostages, two officials involved in the talks said Tuesday. Mediator Qatar said Israel and the Palestinian militant group were at the “closest point” yet to sealing a deal.

The Associated Press obtained a copy of the proposed agreement, and an Egyptian official and a Hamas official confirmed its authenticity. An Israeli official said progress has been made, but the details are being finalized. The plan would need to be submitted to the Israeli Cabinet for final approval.

Er ... maybe, reports the Jerusalem Post. Whatever the AP saw still hasn't come to the Israelis:

No final answer was given from Hamas regarding a hostage deal, an Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. 

Earlier, the Associated Press reported, citing two officials involved in the negotiations, that Hamas has agreed to the proposed ceasefire deal in Gaza and the release of numerous hostages.

According to the report, an Israeli official noted that while progress had been made, the final details were still under discussion.

Still, preparations in Israel suggest that the deal is close, if not yet firmly established:

Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, head of the Health Ministry’s public health division, says the ministry is preparing for the return of hostages, with 33 expected to be freed in the first phase of the deal currently being negotiated between Israel and Hamas.

The conditions of these hostages, including women, children, older adults and wounded civilians, who return after more than a year in captivity will be “very different” than when Hamas released 105 civilians during a weeklong truce in late November 2023, she tells Ynet.

Donald Trump told Newsmax last night that a "handshake" version of the deal had already been achieved. Details still needed to be settled, he said on the phone, based on input from his own team that has joined the Biden team at the talks for continuity. Trump also warned what would happen if this turned into another Hamas Hokey Pokey:

"I understand there's been a handshake, and they're getting it finished, maybe by the end of the week," Trump affirmed. 

"We're very close to getting it done," he noted. 

"They have to get it done," the President-elect emphasized, warning of severe consequences if a hostage deal would not be achieved. 

"If they don't get it done, there's going to be a lot of trouble out there," he noted, "like they have never seen before."

In another sign that this might be more serious, Hamas has begun to notify the other terror factions in Gaza to prepare for a deal. That's necessary because the hostages and the bodies have been delegated out to these factions, presumably to complicate any deal negotiations, but also to free up Hamas terrorists to fight. Hamas has balked at identifying the living hostages in part with the excuse that they do not control all of them, but now that they appear to have gotten enough from the Israelis, they have to coordinate those releases quickly. This looks like a last step before the actual exchanges begin. 

We have more specific terms for the first time since negotiations stalled out in the first hostage exchange in December 2023, too. The first stage will release 33 hostages, the Times of Israel reports, "most" of them still alive:

The officials said that the first stage of the potential deal would see Hamas release 33 “humanitarian” hostages — children, women, female soldiers, the elderly and the sick. Israel believes most of the 33 are alive but that some are dead, the officials said. They noted that Jerusalem has not yet received any confirmation of their status.

If the first stage is carried out, then on the 16th day of the deal coming into effect, Israel will begin negotiations on a second stage to free the remaining captives — male soldiers and men of military age — and the bodies of slain hostages, the officials said. ... 

The officials said that Israel was holding onto significant “assets,” including high-profile terrorists and territory in the Gaza Strip, to use as leverage in the second stage of negotiations to “ensure that every hostage is returned home.”

It looks as though the Israelis agreed to a 5:1 or 6:1 exchange rate for these hostages. The Times of Israel report states that, although no one in the October 7 attacks will be released in any part of this deal, as many as 200 terrorists convicted of murders will be exchanged for the hostages. Unlike earlier exchanges, though, these prisoners will get released into Gaza rather than the West Bank, and some of them may end up exiled altogether. And at least through the first stage, Israel will continue to control the Philadelphi Corridor and access to northern Gaza from the south as well along the Netzarim Corridor. 

Anh deal has to pass a vote in the security cabinet first, and that's not quite a given. National security minister Itamar Ben Gvir has denounced any deals with Hamas and wants finance minister Bezalel Smotrich to join him in either defeating the deal or bringing down Netanyahu's government. That's a long shot, however, as Israelis have put tremendous pressure on Netanyahu to get the hostages out alive. Netanyahu's opposition has offered to join the government to support the deal and allow Netanyahu to dismiss the hardliners if necessary, but Netanyahu clearly wouldn't want to rely on them to keep the government in place after the deal. He plans to meet with Gvir to try to get him on board sometime today, another indication that this deal may actually be real. 

As always, though, don't count on it until it happens.