Old and busted: Maximum pressure. New hotness: Maximum heat?

Welcome to the dark side of Israel's stunning victories in the Middle East over the past three months. By destroying Hezbollah, Benjamin Netanyahu kicked out the only strut holding up Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Now that Assad has fallen, so has Iran's "Shiite Crescent" and their encirclement strategy in the region, aimed not just at Israel but also the Sunni Arab states. All of that is good news, of course, as Iran suddenly finds itself naked before the world.

The bad news? Iran has more incentive than ever to cloak itself in nuclear weapons, and they're close to stitching a few together, too. Either the Israelis or the West have to figure out a way to stop the Iranians or at least providing enough disincentives to get them to quit playing with fire. And that has Donald Trump considering pre-emptive strikes on their nuclear facilities, according to the WSJ:

President-elect Donald Trump is weighing options for stopping Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon, including the possibility of preventive airstrikes, a move that would break with the longstanding policy of containing Tehran with diplomacy and sanctions.

The military-strike option against nuclear facilities is now under more serious review by some members of his transition team, who are weighing the fall of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad—Tehran’s ally—in Syria, the future of U.S. troops in the region, and Israel’s decimation of regime proxy militias Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran’s weakened regional position and recent revelations of Tehran’s burgeoning nuclear work have turbocharged sensitive internal discussions, transition officials said. All deliberation on the issue, however, remains in the early stages.

Trump has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent calls that he is concerned about an Iranian nuclear breakout on his watch, two people familiar with their conversations said, signaling he is looking for proposals to prevent that outcome. The president-elect wants plans that stop short of igniting a new war, particularly one that could pull in the U.S. military, as strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities have the potential put the U.S. and Iran on a collision course.

That's quite a journey from "no new wars" to John McCain's "bomb bomb Iran." It was quite the journey for Barack Obama in 2011 too, at least reportedly. 

The purpose of this leak may be the same as in 2011, although this probably will have more impact on Tehran. Now that Israel has defenestrated Iran's forward 'defenses,' the Iranians have to either fund a massive expansion in conventional forces as a counterweight to the US-supplied Israel, Jordan, and Saudi militaries, or take the nuclear shortcut. The mullahs can't afford Door Number 1, however, and have pretty much already funded and supplied Door Number 2. Sanctions make that financial imbalance even more acute; the Iranians can't afford to spend the kind of money needed on conventional forces even under current sanctions, and Trump is planning to tighten those significantly as soon as he comes into office.

The deterrence to that choice also comes from the Israelis' success, however. The fall of Assad allowed Israel to almost completely wipe out Syria's air defenses, which made direct strikes on Iran more difficult for Israel. The Israeli air force (IAF) now has complete air superiority over Syria, and that means Iran will be blind to any airstrikes -- especially since Israel took out Iran's own air defense radars in their last retaliatory strike:

According to the military, the IAF destroyed 86% of the former Assad regime’s air defense systems across Syria, totaling 107 separate air defense components and another 47 radars.

The numbers include 80% of the short-to medium-range SA-22, also known as the Pantsir-S1; and 90% of the Russian SA-17 medium-range air defense system, also known as the Buk.

Both Russian-made systems had posed challenges to the IAF during its so-called campaign between campaigns — or Mabam, as it’s known by its Hebrew acronym — aimed at countering Iranian weapon deliveries to Hezbollah in Lebanon and attempts by Iran-backed groups to gain a foothold in the country, which began in 2013.

Only a handful of air defense systems now remain in Syria, and they are not considered a major threat to the IAF, which said it can operate freely across the country’s skies.

For now, this allows Israel to interdict weapons transfers between Iran and Hezbollah without any fear of counterattack. But it opens the door to surprise airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities too, which are well known to the Israelis and to the US as well. Joe Biden tied Benjamin Netanyahu's hands on the last round of retaliatory strikes to prevent Israel from dealing with the threat, in the vain hope that the mullahs would respond to reason. 

That brings us to today's leak in the WSJ. Trump is not inclined to start new wars, but he has been sympathetic to ending existing wars in finality rather than frozen conflict. The leak may be intended as a warning to Iran that Biden's gloves have been removed and the US will support a wide range of Israeli strategies for dealing with the threat from Tehran. For the first time in four years, and perhaps for the first time ever in any real sense, the costs of Door Number 2 might outweigh the benefits perceived from building nuclear weapons. Tehran could afford to scoff at the idea that Barack Obama would bomb Iran, but they can't afford to laugh off a threat from Trump. 

Will the mullahs listen? They may not have any choice now, but if they don't, they can't say they weren't warned.