Strange things are afoot at the Protection Racket Media Circle K. Or perhaps not so strange, when the impact of incentives are properly understood. 

The real surprise is that NBC News reports this new development by crediting Donald Trump -- in the headline, no less:

Hamas relented in ceasefire talks under Trump pressure, official says

The president-elect's warning that he wants to see a deal before he takes office was “a big factor” in recent concessions, the source tells NBC News.

Trump wanting a deal wasn't the pressure that created these two key concessions, however. As the Wall Street Journal more accurately reports, it was Trump's promise of what would happen without a deal by January 20 that provided the proper incentive:

Hamas has yielded to two of Israel’s key demands for a cease-fire deal in Gaza, Arab mediators said, raising hopes of an agreement that could release some hostages within days despite the repeated collapse of previous negotiations.

The militant group told mediators for the first time that it would agree to a deal that would allow Israeli forces to remain in Gaza temporarily when the fighting stops. Hamas also handed over a list of hostages, including U.S. citizens, whom it would release under a cease-fire pact, something it hasn’t done since the first truce in the conflict last year. ...

Progress toward a deal comes after an Egyptian delegation visited Israel in late November, and after President-elect Donald Trump said on Truth Social earlier this month that there would be “hell to pay” in the Middle East if the hostages aren’t released before he assumes office in January.

As part of the latest proposal, Israel and Hamas are considering a 60-day cease-fire period that would see the release of up to 30 hostages being held in Gaza, including U.S. citizens, according to the mediators. In exchange, Israel would set free Palestinian prisoners and allow greater humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza, they said.

Emphasis mine. 

Let's mull this development for a moment or two in the context of time. Had Joe Biden made this declaration 14 months ago, would Americans still be held by Hamas in Gaza? Instead of making it clear that the US would use its power to punish terrorists that kidnap Americans, Biden instead tried to appease Hamas by criticizing Israel for doing what the US should have also done. Biden took credit for the one operational pause and exchange that did succeed in freeing half of the hostages, but never required Hamas to release the Americans. Instead, Biden left the Americans to languish in Hamas' tunnels for the next year, even after over 40 Americans got slaughtered by Hamas in the October 7 massacres.

Donald Trump isn't even president yet, and he's already asserting American power and will on behalf of its citizens. And it's already working, at least for the moment.

How solid are these concessions, though? Hamas has agreed to terms during talks only to renege on them later in an attempt to leverage Western ire against Israel and force more concessions. That may be what Hamas is doing now, especially with their apparent agreement to do a swap with the IDF still in Gaza, a red line for them up until now. They may play this game again and bait the West into pressuring Israel into more concessions, just as they have done all along. 

What may prevent that from happening now is Trump, not to mention the changed landscape of the Middle East. When it comes to foreign policy and Israel, Trump is just about the antithesis of Biden. He's not looking to leverage the crisis to put Israel under his thumb but just the opposite, and Trump might welcome a provocation that allows him to demonstrate what he means by "hell to pay." 

But since we're following incentives, we can't overlook the fact that what's left of Hamas is very, very lonely at the moment. Israel has destroyed Hezbollah as a fighting force, and the proof of that is the collapse of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Without the Shiite Crescent forcing Israel to defend itself in the north, the "unified battlefield" is defunct, and Hamas can't expect relief from the trap it set for itself. Israel can once again direct most of its resources to destroying Hamas in Gaza, and in less than 40 days, Hamas can't even expect the US to pressure Israel into moderating its tactics. 

The only path left to survival is to accept defeat and get what can be gotten while the window remains open. About the only concession they can expect from Israel is a cessation of a fixed period of time, plus an agreement to draw down on the basis of milestones between the two sides. But even then, Israel will not allow Hamas to control Gaza in the end:

The report added that Israeli negotiators were pushing for more hostages to be released in the initial phase of the ceasefire. At the same time, it said they had agreed to a gradual withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border. Hamas has also reportedly agreed that it would not have any involvement in running the Palestinian side of the Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza.

The only reason this deal exists is because Biden's still in charge. The deal will get a lot worse in about five weeks. And Hamas knows it.