Talk about a statement against interests. Or perhaps this analysis from veteran Democrat adviser Doug Sosnick in the New York Times intends to be a final warning call to the Kamala Harris campaign. 

In fairness, this reads more straightforwardly than a partisan panic-porn blast. Sosnick only allows himself one bit of partisan editorializing while noting that the data he sees suggests that Donald Trump has the clearest path to an Electoral College win. "Clearest" is a term of art in itself, as he rightly observes that the partisan trench warfare over the past two decades has made American presidential elections a constant vigil on the same seven states. 

Unless, that is, Trump does something to change the race in his "increasingly erratic" state:

I have been working in politics since 1980, and in every single presidential election, at this point in the campaign, I had a clear sense of the winner. (OK, I got it wrong in 2016.) Heading into the final weekend of the race, it is not clear which candidate will win.

Given Mr. Trump’s resiliency and his advantages in the Sun Belt states, I believe he has a more plausible path to winning the Electoral College than Ms. Harris does. Still, I would not count Ms. Harris out, because of the potency of the issue of abortion, her superior ground game and the fact that a majority of Americans do not want four more years of Mr. Trump as president. Not to mention that in the closing days of the campaign, Mr. Trump has become increasingly erratic, which may magnify any concerns voters have about his return to the White House.

Ahem. Trump hasn't been "increasingly erratic." The mainstream media coverage of Trump has become increasingly hysterical and now has gone all the way to unhinged. A bad joke from a warm-up insult comic about Puerto Rico being an "island of garbage" was a NATIONAL CRISIS and A SIGN OF MAGA XENOPHOBIA ... right up until Joe Biden called Trump supporters "garbage." Suddenly, context, stutters, and the West Wing Apostrophe become the story, as well as all of that nasty Republican pouncing®.

As for the "majority of Americans" that do not want four more years of Trump, I suppose that's why we have elections, as well as the Electoral College. The issue isn't that a majority opposes a return to the Trump presidency, it's that Democrats haven't been able to gin up that majority, despite their increasingly erratic and hysterical rhetoric.

Once readers get past that, though, Sosnick's analysis and maps look pretty solid, given the data on hand at the moment. Trump has been solidifying his advantages in the Sun Belt, but all Harris has to do is hold all three Blue Wall states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin They have voted as a bloc since 1992, so that makes it more plausible a path to 270 ... but only to 270. Sosnick thinks Arizona and Nevada are likely to tip to Trump, and both Georgia and North Carolina are leaning in that direction. 

What happens if Harris loses PA, though? That certainly looks possible, thanks to GOP voter registration gains in a state Joe Biden only carried by 1.2 points:

Pennsylvania has outsize importance for Ms. Harris since six of the most plausible paths for victory require her carrying the state. But the Democratic voter registration advantage there has dropped to a margin of 4 percent from 7.4 percent in 2020.

If Harris does lose PA, she has to hold the other two Blue Wall states and win at least two of the Sun Belt states. If she loses only Michigan or Wisconsin, Harris can make up the difference with either Georgia or North Carolina. If she loses all three Blue Wall states, well ... welcome to 2016. 

Most of us can and do play with these scenarios at 270toWin, so they will be familiar to readers. Sosnick really hits the nail on the head on what could end up driving those scenarios, and it's basically a gender gap that Trump is winning:

The foundation of Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and a central part of his strategy for winning next week — is centered around white non-college-educated voters. Notably, they make up over 50 percent of all eligible voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Within this demographic, Mr. Trump is particularly focused on men, which is why he spent three hours doing Joe Rogan’s podcast. In the NBC poll, he is carrying white non-college-educated men by 42 points.

The Harris campaign is taking a similar approach, focusing on white college-educated women, who currently favor Ms. Harris by 29 points. She is also trying to elevate the stakes of the campaign in hopes of increasing the turnout of occasional voters by settling on a closing argument that calls out Mr. Trump as a threat to our democracy.

She and Biden flogged the "threat to democracy" argument for two years, and it hasn't dented Trump's momentum. In fact, that's pretty much all they've argued, as Sosnick concedes. He astutely argues that Harris never got a chance to develop the political muscle for campaigning, but that's because Democrats short-circuited the process to anoint her to the top of the ticket. 

As far as the gender gap, it goes beyond the split in those specific demos. There are a lot more non-college males than college-educated females, white or not. The pool is just larger, especially in Blue Wall states which means Trump can leverage that more where it matters in the Rust Belt. And it probably didn't help Harris much for Mark Cuban and other surrogates to claim this week that only stupid and weak women support Trump, fueling even more turnout potential against Harris. 

Sosnick doesn't offer a prediction, and neither does Harry Enten at CNN. Enten tries to put any sense of polling momentum into context, and he's right about the data:

Trump's in a better position than he on Oct 1., but we're talking 1 pt on average.

Bottom line: SOOO CLOSE.

An average poll miss (3.4 pts) in Trump's direction gives him a blowout electoral college win.

An average poll miss in Harris' direction gives her a blowout win. pic.twitter.com/b3QKcdtkUj

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 1, 2024

As I have warned over the last couple of says, the polling data show that this could go either way. Other data, such as party ID, voter registration, and early voting as compared to four years ago, offers the GOP reasons for optimism. Betting markets are still favoring Trump. But with less than four days to go, keep in mind that the margins of error still could hide other trends that will only become apparent after the ballots have been counted.

So get out and vote, and bring some friends with you too.