Is this panic ... or is it overconfidence? Assuming it's real, of course, it might be either.
Until one looks at the polls, that is.
Over at our sister site Twitchy, Sam J flags some developing news out of North Carolina, where the presidential race appeared close a few weeks ago. Now it appears that Team Kamala has pulled advertising in the entire state over the last week of the election, presumably in connection with Harris' "closing argument" today on the National Mall:
@KamalaHarris giving up on North Carolina..pulling money out. Maybe to drop in Virginia to try and stop the slide ? pic.twitter.com/oTcCAuTJYx
— Chris LaCivita (@LaCivitaC) October 29, 2024
If true, it's a strange decision. The Harris campaign has raised more cash than Trump's campaign has, and at last peek a few weeks ago, more cash on hand too. It's not as if public polling has Trump suddenly running away with North Carolina, either. The current RCP aggrgegation has Trump up by only 0.9 points, although Harris hasn't led a poll there in a couple of weeks. Unlike the other battleground states, pollsters got closer in both of the last two cycles in predicting an outcome in North Carolina, although Trump still beat the average to win the state in both cycles.
There's no need for panic or overconfidence, in other words, at least not in this state. So why pull money out now, assuming again this is accurate? For one thing, the Democrat Party has a new campaign launching in the battlegrounds that targets women more precisely:
In hopes of cutting through the noise, the DNC is deploying "tailored advertising that meets Americans where they are," the group's acting co-executive director Monica Guardiola said in a statement.
"Now through Election Day, as voters turn to the sources they trust most for news, culture, entertainment, and leisure, they will be met with Democrats' message of freedom," she said.
That message will be delivered in some less-traditional places, including nail salons, malls, transit centers and grocery stores.
That doesn't explain why Team Kamala may be pulling TV spot money, of course; they could run both campaigns simultaneously. They may be using the new campaign to allow the use of their own resources elsewhere, especially in Pennsylvania. As LaCivita suggests, they may also be looking to shift it to Virginia and New Hampshire, where recent polling suggests the risk of a wider loss -- but it wouldn't make sense to take that from the NC budget. The campaign would likely look elsewhere ... unless they are really tapping out.
The claim that the ads are getting pulled in Wisconsin seems less grounded in data, and more of a rumor at the moment. That rumor is also not new:
One week out from election, and the Harris-Walz campaign has pulled money & advertisements from TWO key swing states (WI, NC).
— Tony Kinnett (@TheTonus) October 29, 2024
My God, I've never seen such panic. https://t.co/GYL9K1R9vJ
— Tony Kinnett (@TheTonus) October 29, 2024
I didn't find any report in Wisconsin media of ad pulls, for what it's worth. The polling at RCP makes an even worse case for panic or overconfidence in that state, however. Trump has a 0.5 point lead in that state, where again Harris hasn't led in a poll for a couple of weeks and Trump has a +1 edge in the last three polls to drop. The trendlines in Wisconsin are narrowly moving in Trump's direction, but not by anything dramatic enough to suddenly disappear off the air in the final days of the campaign.
Best guess here on ad pulls in North Carolina: They may see the Democrat Party effort as better targeted than 30,000-foot messaging at this point. That would allow them to move those resources elsewhere ... but I wouldn't guess that would be Virginia. Recent public polling doesn't show any reason for panic there, although private polling might. I'd suspect that they need more resources in Nevada:
Nevada voter update:
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 29, 2024
Small batch of Clark mail came in while we slept. helped Dems cut into GOP statewide edge, but not by a lot.
GOP+38,000, or 5.3 percent
Full blog update later today.
#SphereMatters https://t.co/pfejhudGjA
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 29, 2024
This looks like a real panic situation for Democrats, more so than Virginia. And Trump has a +0.7 point lead in the RCP aggregation there even without the apparent turnout advantage developing. Stay tuned.
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