Yesterday, I wrote about the suggestion that Kamala Harris has a Catholic problem in the battleground states, particularly in Pennsylvania, a state Democrats simply can't afford to lose. Wall Street Journal columnist William McGurn suggested that Harris' disconnect from Catholics alone could cost her the election. This looks to me like a broader cultural disconnect from the working class, where Catholics are more of a visible if not entirely cohesive demo that exemplifies it. 

But if Harris really does have a Catholic problem, she could address it tonight -- by showing up in person to the Al Smith Charity Dinner held by the Archdiocese of New York. 

The campaign decided a month ago to snub Timothy Cardinal Dolan and the humanizing, collegial event that has traditions in presidential politics going back a century. Duane noted it in brief four weeks ago, and argued that the campaign had already become too insular and fixated on the Democrat progressive base. 

But at that time, the portents looked at least somewhat promising for Harris. She came out of the one debate on ABC with Trump with a boost, thanks in large part to the interventions of David Muir and Linsey Davis in attacking Trump. Harris was peaking at the time in both the betting markets and Nate Silver's win-probability trending. 

Furthermore, Harris remained committed to a disqualification argument against Trump that voters didn't buy when Joe Biden used it. Voters still weren't buying even when Harris got a little post-debate wind in her polling sails, so to speak, but that slight momentum masked that reality. Appearing at the Al Smith Dinner would normalize Trump and undercut her message that voters should support her by default to oppose Trump's "threat to democracy."

Now, of course, Team Kamala can't afford to stay the course on the DQ-Trump strategy. Enough voters clearly consider Trump a viable option for them, especially as a change from the status quo they despise. If the campaign had any sense of the situation in which they find themselves, they'd start looking for ways to meet voters where they are, rather than demand voters come to Kamala where she is.

Nope: 

Vice President Harris: Donald Trump is increasingly unstable, unhinged, and seeking unchecked power. His National Security Advisor, two Defense Secretaries, his former Chief of Staff, and his own Vice President are all warning America that he is unfit pic.twitter.com/bheJuuhtLH

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) October 16, 2024

Both Harris and Biden have pushed the "either me or the abyss" argument all year. And yet Harris stands a very good chance of losing this election, because she believes she's entitled to the office, and that Trump shouldn't even be allowed to run for it. 

That's a problem, especially among Catholics. As the liberal National Catholic Reporter revealed on Monday, Trump leads Harris among Catholic voters in the states she has to win to deny him another term:

In the battleground states, Catholic populations are sizable and are seen as so important to the Trump and Harris campaigns that both have launched efforts to woo the so-called Catholic vote. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, for example, approximately one-quarter of adults identify as Catholic.

Among white Catholic voters, Trump's overall lead widens to 16 percentage points.

The Republican nominee also leads overall among Catholic voters in five of the seven individual states, although some are within the margin of error. The former president does have larger leads in Wisconsin, where he is up by 18 percentage points, and in Michigan, where he leads by 12 points among Catholic voters.

Just a note of caution on these numbers: the margins of error are significant for each specific state. The gaps are wide enough in Michigan and Wisconsin that it's clear Trump leads significantly among Catholics, but that's not necessarily true in closer states like Pennsylvania and Georgia. (The overall results across all battleground states are much more statistically reliable.) But even as NC Reporter claims both campaigns are trying to reach Catholic voters, only Trump is actually showing up to the most prominent Catholic electoral event of the cycle. 

What's Kamala doing to reach out? She's almost literally phoning it in, and even that looks like a late change in plans after initially rebuffing the charitable event:

“Although we traditionally have had the privilege of hosting two presidential candidates, unfortunately Vice President Kamala Harris is still unable to join us this year due to conflicts with her campaign schedule,” Mary Erdoes, vice chair of the Al Smith Foundation’s board of directors, wrote in an email Friday which was obtained by the DCNF. “Please know that we exhausted every possible effort and connection we had to try to get her there, but to no avail. While we will miss her on the Dais, she will be joining us on screen, likely via video.”

Isaac Shore wrote yesterday that Harris sends a very clear message to Catholic voters with this snub, and it's not peace be with you:

Thanks to the modern miracle of air travel, it would be easy for Harris to spend most of the day pounding the pavement on the campaign trail and make an appearance at the dinner.

And remember: Harris recently carved out the time in her schedule to appear on the raunchy Call Her Daddy podcast, as well as to attend a star-studded fundraiser in Los Angeles.

The choice to spurn the event is just that: A choice. ...

Harris is an antagonist of religious Christians, someone who neither enjoys time spent around them nor wants to alienate her far-left political base by doing so.

Her record on religious issues speaks for itself.

And so does her refusal to engage rather than just lecture. Trump will have the floor to himself and can once again demonstrate that he will come to where voters are rather than demand they come to him. Harris will once again demonstrate that her arrogance and hostility remain unchecked, and that she still feels that voters owe her the election -- Catholics, and everyone else. 

Father forgive her, for she really knows not what she does.