Could the collapse of Hezbollah touch off a domino effect in the Middle East? Iran's primary proxy and the world's most powerful non-state organization didn't just keep Lebanon under Tehran's thumb, after all. Hassan Nasrallah played a key role in propping up Iranian puppet Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

And now Syrians are beginning to cheer their "disarray," as the New York Times puts it:

Even as most of the Middle East is overtaken by outrage at weeks of destructive Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and its leaders, some communities are celebrating the disarray of the powerful militia that persecuted them.

Nowhere is that sentiment as strong as in parts of Syria, where Hezbollah has played a key role in helping President Bashar al-Assad wage a brutal crackdown on opponents of his family’s decades-long rule, and where news of Israeli strikes on Hezbollah neighborhoods prompted singing in the streets of rebel strongholds.

Hezbollah’s origin story is in fighting Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon, which ended in 2000, and fighting Israel is the mission central to its followers’ identity. But one of its biggest military roles over the past decade had actually been in Syria, helping its patron, Iran, keep Mr. Assad in power.

Hezbollah forces played a part in some of the most brutal chapters of the Syrian civil war, including sieges that starved encircled communities for months, as well as operations that expelled many Sunni Muslims, who were the backbone of the anti-Assad revolt, from neighborhoods and towns.

Assad only barely managed to prevail in the long and bloody Syrian civil war, even with help from Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia. Russia now has another bloody war and quagmire in Ukraine, and probably can't help out if a Hezbollah collapse triggers another popular uprising. Iran might have to take the field directly, but that would risk triggering a direct conflict with Israel, as they would first need to secure their position in Lebanon by reconstituting Hezbollah as their proxy. 

For Syria, though, Iran can re-engage more directly with its Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). That too could prompt clashes with Israel, but Syria is going to be a secondary consideration for Benjamin Netanyahu while Israel deals with the remaining threats from Lebanon. If Assad starts looking wobbly, Ali Khamenei can't afford to ignore that threat. If Syria slips away from Iran's orbit, they will have almost no way to project power in the region. 

Of course, Assad has had some considerable time to rebuild his position, too, so this eruption of joy could be premature. Especially over the last year, Assad has assisted Hezbollah at least to a similar extent that Hezbollah assisted Assad. And even if Aassad begins to falter and a popular uprising can oust him, the West might not want to start singing hosannas either. The short-term result of a collapse would likely boost the still-extant ISIS threats in Syria, and could result in an even worse tyrant taking power with the help of Iran's mullahs. There may not be too many worse options than Assad, but that number isn't zero either.

The real opportunity is next door. Lebanon has a functioning government with its own armed forces, which until now have been vastly outgunned by Hezbollah. Israel tried allying with them in the early 1980s in order to get a Druze-centered friendly government in Beirut while fighting against the PLO, which had touched off a civil war there after getting kicked out of Syria. That war and occupation ended up boosting the fortunes of Hezbollah as Iran muscled into the fight. Israel has another opportunity to help liberate Lebanon, but the Lebanese will have to fight for their freedom to win it.

I keep reading everywhere that Lebanon is 'on the brink of collapse.' No. It is on the brink of relief and deliverance. When #Hezbollah, its leaders, and its leader, Hassan #Nasrallah, are finally defeated, #Lebanon will be liberated. pic.twitter.com/fRxMWjP0bX

— Bernard-Henri Lévy (@BHL) September 28, 2024

Let's hope that's the case. Once Lebanon frees itself from the tentacles of the Iranians, then perhaps Syria can follow in a more orderly fashion.