Call this the Michael Corleone offer. Remember this scene from The Godfather, Part II?

The latest proposal from Israel to Hamas may not be quite as dire, but it may not be far off either. Frustrations over Hamas' lack of seriousness has created a lot of pressure on Israel to escalate concessions in order to get to a cease-fire. Most of the recent haggling has concerned the phasing of a multi-stage deal, with issues such as IDF positions, disarmament, and multiple releases of hostages and bodies for asymmetrical releases of Palestinian prisoners from Israel.

The new proposal eliminates most of the haggling. Simply put, Israel wants a single phase, where hostages get released in exchange for Yahya Sinwar and Hamas being allowed to escape Gaza and the West Bank for their lives:

According to sources, US officials believe that a phased deal "doesn't work" and are considering different options. The leading alternative plan suggests combining all the stages into one single step. In Israel and the US, there’s a growing belief that skipping the intermediate stage is necessary because the current negotiations are not succeeding.

The new suggested proposal is for a single, comprehensive deal where all hostages, whether alive or dead, are returned to Israel at once, terrorists are released from Israeli prisons, and the mediators commit to disarming Gaza and moving Hamas leaders to a third country.

In exchange, Israel would agree to withdraw from Gaza, with the mediators setting up a multinational force to oversee the agreement’s implementation, including disarming Gaza (e.g., destroying Hamas’s rocket stockpiles and tunnels).

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and key terrorists would have the option to leave Gaza for a third country, and many of the terrorists released from Israeli prisons would be sent to third countries and not allowed to return to the Gaza Strip or West Bank.

So it's not quite an offer for nothing. But for Sinwar and Hamas, it would be pretty close to it. Given that, it's pretty clearly from the Israelis, and a report from the Times of Israel confirms that:

The official says Israel’s point man on the hostage deal, Gal Hirsch, presented the plan to the Americans, who were expected to pass it on to unspecified Arab officials.

The official says the deal would represent the end of the war if the conditions were met.

According to the Kan public broadcaster, Israel has proposed a framework for a deal with Hamas that would see all the hostages released at once and an end to the fighting in the Gaza Strip, along with safe passage out of the enclave for Sinwar and his associates. The proposed plan would also see the release of Palestinian prisoners jailed in Israel, the demilitarization of the Strip, and a new system of governance for Gaza, the report says. No further details are given.

This would in effect be a capitulation by Hamas. They would have to give up any hope of controlling Gaza or even having a toehold in the region by which they could continue their effort to annihilate Israel. Their movement would be discredited in such a deal, which means that their political support in the West Bank -- which has increased substantially since October 7 -- would almost certainly collapse. It's not clear which "third country" would accept the Hamas remnants, for that matter; Palestinian terror groups have a history of fomenting revolt wherever they nest, although again, this would likely be a retirement plan for Sinwar at best.

Let's stipulate that Sinwar almost certainly won't even entertain the offer. But perhaps he should, especially after Israel's defenestration of thousands of Hezbollah fighters and commanders this week. Hamas has counted on Hezbollah's intervention all along to force Israel into a multi-front war, but Hezbollah has been hesitant to try it. Even swearing bloody revenge after the mass pagercide, the truth is that Israel has decimated their ranks of able-bodied operatives and all but destroyed their comms infrastructure. 

Plus, the IDF now controls Sinwar's best and perhaps only escape route in the Philadelphi Corridor. As long as Israel controls that border, Sinwar can't be resupplied with either men or materiel. And as long as Hamas units get destroyed and fall apart, they can't exercise their tyrannic grip on Gaza, either. A poll taken by a Palestinian interest group and released this week showed that 57% of residents now say the October 7 attack on Israel was a mistake, an exact reversal of a similar poll in June that showed 57% supporting the decision. The biggest change in three months on the ground hasn't been Israeli military success but Hamas' loss of control in many areas of Gaza. 

What about Hamas' allies? Iran will oppose this deal, of course, as will Hezbollah and the Houthis, mainly because it will free up Israel to go after them next. Interlocutors Jordan and Egypt would probably love to see this deal happen, though, just to put an end to a grinding political crisis in their own states. Saudi Arabia would at least like it as a way to put an end to instability and put the Abraham Accord process back on track. The question would be which of these countries will put boots on the ground in Gaza to enforce Hamas' exile, and for how long. 

This is all academic, however. Sinwar won't accept this deal or anything that looks like it. If he was willing to accept exile, he would have already escaped via the Philadelphi Corridor and be relaxing in Tehran courtesy of the IRGC. But even if he hasn't seen The Godfather Part II, Sinwar knows exactly what Israel means in making this offer.